摘要
针对我国道路交通事故死亡人数既有总体变化趋势又有周期波动的特点,建立了灰色-周期外延组合模型。该模型是在GM(1,1)模型的基础上建立的残差周期外延模型。它提取优势周期,通过将不同周期同一时刻的值叠加,生成灰色-周期外延组合模型。利用该模型对我国道路交通事故死亡人数进行预测,可明显提高预测精度。
The road traffic fatality number in China has the characteristics that there is a general trend and meanwhile a periodic fluctuation.According to the characteristics,a gray-periodic extensional combination model was established.This model was an error periodic extensional model based on GM(1,1),which extracted the superior period,and added the values of different periods at the same moment.The model could predicte the road traffic fatality number of China,and the result indicated that the model could significantly improve the forecast.
出处
《交通运输工程与信息学报》
2010年第4期4-8,共5页
Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information
