摘要
目的以数学模型探索北京市乙型肝炎(乙肝)发病率变化规律,并进行预测。方法以1991─2008年全市乙肝发病率数据为基础,用SPSS 15.0软件拟合11种常见模型,预测2009─2011年发病率。结果三次方程模型(CUB)拟合较佳(据决定系数、F值和P值),2009─2011年乙肝发病率预测值分别为43.27/10万、42.93/10万和41.53/10万。结论北京市2009─2011年乙肝发病率将稳中有降,但控制工作仍不容轻视。
Objective To analyz e the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B and predict the incidence rate by mathematical model.Methods Based on the incidence data from 1991 to 2008,11 kinds of models were fitted to predict the incidence in 2009-2011 by SPSS 15.0.Results "CUB" model was better one(according to R square,value F and P) to predict the incidence of hepatitis B.The predicted incidence rates(1/100 000) were 43.27,42.93 and 41.53 from 2009 to 2011.Conclusion It is suggested that the incidence rate of hepatiti...
出处
《海峡预防医学杂志》
CAS
2011年第1期7-8,11,共3页
Strait Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金
北京市科委项目(No.Z0006264040791)
关键词
乙型肝炎
发病率
数学模型
预测
Hepatitis B
Incidence
Mathematical Model
Prediction
