摘要
根据灰色预测理论，提出一种以改进信息提取方法为基础的灰色拓扑区间灾变预测法．该法既填补了灾变预测法中信息量的不足，又加强了拓扑预测法对实测灾变信息量的利用，从而将灾变预测和拓扑预测有机地结合起来，增加了ＧＭ（１，１）建模的信息量用于汉江安康和渭河成阳两站的年最大洪峰流量序列资料进行灾变分析和建模检验，结果是满意的．
Based on an improvement of information collection in the Grey System Theory, a grey topologic interval method of extreme event prediction is proposed in this paper.This method,which combines the catastrophe prediction with the topologic predicton,not onlycomplements the in sufficient infor mation of catastrophe prediction but also makes full use ofthe white information within the measured catastrophe dare and adds to the volume ofinformation on the GM(1, 1)model. The series of measured annual maximum peak floods intwo typical locations, namely, Ankang, on the Han River, and Xianyang on the Wei River (both in the Shanxi Province of China), were used to illustrate this extreme event, and todevelop and test the model. The resultsare discussed in the paper.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
1995年第2期94-102,共9页
Water Resources and Power
