摘要
基于可靠度分析方法的海上结构物海冰设计标准的确定是近几年新发展起来的方法。这种方法,将作用在结构物上的最大静冰力的变化,考虑成一个由多种相互独立、随机变量的联合概率函数所描述的随机过程,并利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法求解最大静冰力的长期概率分布。本文对这种方法中的两个重要问题,即对静冰力计算有重要影响的主要参量的概率模型和确定性冰力计算所采用的力学模型的选择进行了初步探讨,并在文中讨论了渤海海冰设计标准中冰厚和冰强度概率分布的选取和确定,对现有的冰力计算模型(塑性分析模型、蠕变分析模型和断裂分析模型)作了初步的分析和比较。
It has been a rapidly developed procedure in the recent years to formulate a design criterion of sea ice on the basis of reliability analysis.In the paper, two of the key problems in the procedure-selection of the probabilistic and mechanical models of the design maximum ice forces are discussed.Especially the available mathematic models of ice forces to date (plastic limit analysis model, creep analysis model and fracture analysis model)are particularly investigated, and the comparison and comments are presented. Two parameters are considered relevant to the determination of design ice forces,namely ice thickness and ice strength. A design ice thickness probability distribution is obtained by a statistical arrangement of the yearly maximum ice thickness, which have been computed by a thermodynamic model.Similarly, a design ice strength probability distribution is obtained from ice sample strength test data.
The author's opinion and suggestions are finally given in the paper.
出处
《中国海上油气（工程）》
1989年第2期17-24,共8页
China Offshore Oil and Gas
