摘要
本文利用湖南湘阴1977—1984年田间动态数据,建立了飞虱ARIMA与狼蛛ARMA预报模式。计算值与观测值的相关系数分别为0.860和0.785。对1985年早稻一季长期数量预报应验率高。文中还分析了密度制约信号与环境噪声的生物学意义。大量的病虫特征田间观测、灯诱、性诱等定时记录,时间以离散形式变化,特征随时间变化,彼此间既有某种统计的依赖关系,又受各种偶然因素影响,表现出某种随机性。时间序列分析提供了处理这种离散动态系统的数据建立模型和预报的方法。
Two time series analysis models to forecast planthoppers and wolf spiderspopulation densities arefitted,respectively.Data sets were obtained at rice experimental field of Xiangyin county,Hunan from1977 to 1984.These models contain two parts,the population density regulating components and theenvironmental noise components. Correlation coefficients between historical observations and calculation for planthoppers and wolfspiders are 0.860 and 0.785,respectively.Examination of predicted densities with the actual filed ob-tained from Xiangyin up to 60 days in 1985 showed that these models could be used to long term fore-casting.
出处
《植物保护学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1989年第1期1-6,共6页
Journal of Plant Protection
关键词
飞虱
狼蛛
种群密度
预报
planthopper
wolf spider
population density time series analysis forecasting model
