货币与产出的关系（1995～2003）：不同模型的分析结果及其比较被引量：17

The Relationship Between Money and Output（1995 ～2003 ）：The Comparison of the Empirical Results Based on Different Models

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摘要本文利用1995～2003年的季度数据，在对时间序列去势的基础之上，从各种不同模型之间存在互补性出发，递归地利用样本数据对货币与产出之间的关系进行逐步深入的研究。并对各种模型所得结果进行了比较分析。结果表明，不同的模型所得结论既有相似的地方也有不一致之处。各种角度的分析均表明，货币M2对产出变化具有实质性影响，而且这种影响具有持久性；如果不考虑M0在广义货币供应中所占的比重，其对产出的影响得到了经验分析的支持，不过，这种影响并不具有持久性。与上述两种情况不同，在各种角度下，M1 均被证明不对产出具有实质性影响。关于M2与产出关系的特殊性原因，分析结果认为是由于M2中包含的城乡居民储蓄存款变化不仅可以影响总需求，而且还可通过投资影响总供给。 Based on the argument about the relationship between money and output, we use the quarterly data from 1995 -2003 to make the empirical analysis about that argument after detrending the data. Firstly, all the different results show that M2 make a real effect on output . Secondly, if we don＇ t consider the ratio of M0 in M2 ,then we can get the same results on M0 just as M2 , but the effect is not permanent. In all cases, M1 has no effect on the output. We should point out that M2 do effect not only on the aggregate demand but also the aggregate supply.

作者战明华李生校

机构地区绍兴文理学院经管学院

出处《世界经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2005年第8期40-50,80,共12页 The Journal of World Economy

关键词货币产出 GRANGER因果关系分析脉冲响应分析产出关系货币供应模型居民储蓄存款样本数据 2003年

分类号 F224 [经济管理—国民经济]

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