摘要
本文在短临预报指标研究的基础上，综合考虑各指标在综合预报中的作用，并用层次分析法计算出了参与滇西地震综合预测的各指标的综合权重值，最后进行系统合成，从而对滇西地区的地震的发震时间、地点进行定量化的预测，而对强度预测，则在发震时间预测的前提下，综合考虑指标异常出现的项次及持继时间长短（孕报期的长短），来综合判定预测强度。所得结果，通过１９７５年以来滇西地区２３次Ｍｓ≥５．０级地震检验，时间预测对应率为９４．７％，概括率为７８．３％，地点预测准确率为７３．７％，强度预测准确率为８４．２％，并均能通过预报效能Ｒ值评分在９７．５％置信度下的检验，效能显著。
Based on the study of short-impending prediction indexes and considering their roles played in comprehensive prediction, hierarchical analysis method is employed to calculated comprehensive weight values of various indexes used in comprehensive earthquake prediction in West yunnan and then make a systematic synthesis to forecast quantitatively the occurrence time and place of earthquake in West Yunnan. For magnitude forecast, on the basis of above time forecast and by taking term-time and duration of index anomaly into comprehensive account, the magnitude is judged and forecasted. The obtained results are verified by the 23 earthquakes of Ms≥5.0 occurred in West Yunnan region since 1975, getting time forecast corresponding rate of 94.7%, generalization rate of 78.3%, place forecast accurate rate of 73.7%, magnitude forecast accurate rate of 84.2%, which have passed the examination of R value evaluation of prediction ability under confidence level of 97.5%, achieving remarkable efficacy.
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第1期21-28,共8页
Journal of Seismological Research
基金
国家地震局地方地震联合基金
关键词
预报指标
综合预报
矩张量
地震预报
短临预报
Prediction index, Multi-disciplinary, Prediction criteria, Moment tensor, Yunnan.
