摘要
本文提出一种经由椭圆脐点突变（Ｄ）模式进行强震危险地点判定，并在有危险性判定基础上通过统计改正进行强震震中和强震预测的数学方法．通过７０年代以来中国大陆１７个强震震例的验算，表明方法验算有效．
According to Elliptic Umbilic Catastrophe Model (D)we have put forward a mathematical method of judging strong earthquake hazard areas and predicting the centres and magnitudes for strong earthquakes on the basis of possiblities of earthquake hazards by statistical corrections.It is proved that this method is effect by checking the computations of 17 strong shocks which occered in the Chinese continent from 1970's.The method mentioned in this paper can be used to follow real-time trace prediction of strong shocks and do dynamically seismic regionalization.
出处
《地球物理学报》
SCIE
EI
CSCD
北大核心
1994年第A02期177-184,共8页
Chinese Journal of Geophysics
关键词
地震
强震
危险地点
地震预测
突变模式
Strong earthquake hazard judgement
Strong earthquake magnitude prediction
Catastrophe model
Statistical correction.
