摘要
德尔菲技术是常用的一种定性预测方法,国内大多数教材只介绍了该方法的程序,却对于影响因素论述很少。本文对德尔菲技术预测进行了详细的论述,特别是结合预测程序采用案例分析方法,对影响其准确性的因素进行了分析。文章最后对如何提高预测准确性提出了建议,希望能对决策者正确使用该方法有一定的帮助。
Delpher method is widely used in qualitative prediction, many text books talk about it, but few of them centralized on factors that affeted prediction accury. in this article, I introduce the method fully, and analyze the accury-affected factor with the example along with procedure . at the same time I also give suggestions on how to improve the accury of the prediction, with the hope that this article is useful to manager in enterprises.
出处
《和田师范专科学校学报》
2005年第1期142-143,共2页
Journal of Hotan Normal College
