摘要
本文针对某石灰石矿的特殊条件,把电子计算机模拟、预测技术成功地应用于生产系统分析。在考虑运输线路变化及设备老化的前提下,建立了模拟预测模型,对该矿今后五年的生产情况进行了预测。预测结果为该矿制订扩大改造方案提供了科学依据,与原方案相比,有明显的经济效益。
In this paper, a model of simulating predietion is built in accordance
with the special characteristics of the producting system of a certain mine.
The principle of rolling programming is applied for building the model.
The future change of the haulage system considered, the phenomenon of
equipment ageing with the lapse of time is also paid attention to. There-
for, the GM (1, 1) dynamic model of gray controlling system theory
was applied in this model, and the production in the next five years of
the mine was forecasted. The precision of the checked results with the
method of varifying the deviation is up to first degree. That plan can
save much more funds than the original. This model was well is receiyed
by the leaders and the technical personnels in the mine.
A software GCSD System was developed.
