摘要
在《天津双桥咸水层井水位动态映震敏感条件与监视预报效能剖析》的基础上,本文采用较恰当的数学处理及合适的异常指标,由计算机自动识别出了1977年以来的18次异常。 根据异常—发震时间、井—震距、异常性质作了统计计算,得出了最佳发震时间为异常出现后87天至117天,最佳发震距离为井震距66公里至86公里。由异常幅度、面积、陡度特征及其与地震发生地点的关系,广泛地模拟专家依据本统计之外的地下水异常特征、异常井点位及其与断层的关系,给出了地点加议统计发震概率。正演检验表明,预测发震时间、地点、震级与实际发生的地震基本相符。
On the bases of the previous paper 'Sensative conditions of Shuangqiao well level behavior in the saline aquifer and the monitoring and prediction efficiencies', the authors here use ap-propriate mathematical processing and suitable anomaly index to identify water level anoma-lies by computer automatically. In this way 18 anomalies have been recognized since 1977.According to statistical calculations on the relations of the time interval between anomaly and earthquake, epicentral distance and anomaly nature, we obtained that the optimum occur-rence time gf an earthquake is 87-117 days after the anomaly, and that the optimum epicentral distance is 66-86 km. A location-weighted probability of earthquake risk is given by statistics considering the amplitude, area and spatial gradient of the anomalies and their relation with the epicentre; the features of groungwater anomalies not used in this statistical calculation and the relation between well sites and causative faults are widely simulated. The direct perfor-mance test of the above-mentioned method shows that the predicted occurrence-time, location and magnitude are generally consistent with those of earthquakes actually occurred.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1989年第5期9-18,共10页
Earthquake
