摘要
将翁文波（１９８４）信息预测过程的理论应用于地震的决策过程，用四个圆的交叉和重叠表示不同组合，共可分出１３个区。从决策结论是有震的情况可区分出７种不同性质的决策结果，剩下６种都是在无决策情况下。决策有震且正确的有４种性质，决策有震且错误的有３种性质。当前，有关地震预报的理论尚很不完善，决策有震的符合比率相当低。通过决策过程的系统分析有利于理解漏报、虚报、伪报、假正确等情况的产生原因，有利于改善地震决策过程。关键词：
The theory of the information forecast process by Weng Wenbo is applied to the process of the earthquake determination. The cross and overlapping of four circles different combination my be obtained and regions can be divided 13 kinds of the different results of determination can be divided under the circumstance of having earthquake on the result of determination, the others under the condition of no earthquake. There are four kinds of correct determination of the occurrence of earthquake and 3 kinds of wong determination of the occurrence of earthquake. At present, the theory related to earthquake prediction is very imperfect, and the coincidence of the determination of the occurrence of earthquake is also rather low. By synthetic analysis of the determination process, it is advantageous to understand the causation of the fail to earthquake prediction and to improve the process of earthquake determination.
出处
《中国地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1994年第1期9-12,共4页
Earthquake Research in China
基金
863项目
关键词
地震决策
决策过程
地震预报
Earthquake determination
Determination process
Earthquake, prediction
