摘要
本文介绍了灰色──马尔柯夫模型的建立方法，并利用我国林业系统工业企业全员价值劳动生产率资料（１９７１～１９８６年），按照灰色──马尔柯夫模型的建模步骤建立模型并进行预测，同时还进行了误差分析。结果表明，按照该法预测今后的林业系统工业企业全员价值劳动生产率是可行的，而且，在预测林业系统其他企业的多种经济指标方面，有较为广阔的应用前景。
The method how to set up Grey-Markov Model is introduced and the datas of all-personnel value labour productivity of industrial enterprise in our corntry's forestry system is used to set up model according to it's modelling steps in this paper.In the meanwhile it is done prediction and error analysis.The results are as follows:It is feasible to use this model to forecast all-personnd value labour productivity of industrial enterprises in forestry system.And it has a very wide prospects in forecasting many Kinds of economic target of other enterprises in forestry system.
