摘要
东城镇大小规模的泥石流沟21条,严重威胁当地人民生命财产安全.目前当地泥石流的发展趋势主要取决于未来的降水特征及地表松散物.以1990～2003年的降雨资料为基础,运用非线性的灰色动态模型方法对暴发泥石流的水动力条件进行预测,并结合地形、地质及水文条件进行分析,认为该区具备泥石流发生发育条件,有进一步恶化的可能.在已有勘察数据基础上,通过危险度判定的思想方法对21条泥石流沟进行点评价.从评价结果看,兴城四队、大八浦江等沟谷具有潜在致灾能力,需要重点防治;其它低危险度沟谷也要从根本上防止恶化,从而达到综合防治的目的.
There are 21 debris flow gullies of all scales in the Dongcheng Town, which threaten the local people’s life and security seriously. At present, the developing trend of the local debris flows is up to the coming rainfall character and loose mass on the ground surface. So based on the rainfall data during 1990~2003, with a nonlinear grey dynamic model method,a predict of the hydrodynamic condition and combined topographic, geological and hydrographic conditions is made. This district satisfies the conditions that cause debris flows developing and deterioratesing. On basis of the investigated datas, we have carrid the spot estimation of 21 debris flow gullies. From the result, the gullies such as Xingcheng Sidui, Dabapu river have such potential tend to deliver calamity that need preventation and cure on focus. The other lower risk degree gullies need to be kept from deterioration originally too. Eventually the goal of comprehensive preventation and cure can be reached.
出处
《吉林大学学报（地球科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第1期97-103,共7页
Journal of Jilin University：Earth Science Edition
基金
国土资源部地质灾害大调查项目(220212400032)
关键词
泥石流
灰色动态模型
危险度
关联度
评价因子
debris flow
grey dynamic model
risk degree
relevancy degree
appraisal factor
