摘要
基于均衡汇率理论，本文应用简约一般均衡的单方程协整模型，采用真实变量分析了1980～2002年的人民币实际汇率及其与均衡汇率的失调情况，进而研究了不同时期实际汇率表现出高估、低估以及基本平衡时的人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的关系，结果表明：贸易条件与中长期以及短期的实际汇率存在显著的关系，贸易条件的恶化或改善是导致人民币实际汇率升值或贬值的重要原因之一。但是，在不同的发展时期，贸易条件对实际汇率的影响呈现出不同的特点。
Based on the theories on equilibrium exchange rate and used real economic fundamentals,this paper estimates RMB's real equilibrium exchange rate,and analyses RMB's misalignment by the simple general-equilibrium and single-equation cointegration model,and then , analyses the relations between RMB's real exchange rate and terms of trade in different periods in China from 1980 to 2002 when RMB's real exchange rate behaviours overvalued , undervalued or close to the equilibrium level .Some basic conclusions could be made that there are marked relations between RMB's real exchange rate and terms of trade in the medium and long period ,and in short period.The amelioration or deterioration of terms of trade is one of the main reason which would lead to overvaluation or undervaluation of RMB's real exchange rate. But in different development periods of China,the influnences of terms of trade on RMB’s real exchange rate are different.
出处
《科学·经济·社会》
CSSCI
2005年第1期46-50,共5页
Science Economy Society
