全球贸易自由化对中国和世界经济的影响被引量：11

The Impacts of Global Trade Liberalization on China and World Economy

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摘要全球贸易自由化是当前和未来世界经济发展不可避免的趋势。2001年开始的多哈回合贸易自由化多边谈判和最近刚刚取消的"多种纤维协定"(MFA)将在全球贸易自由化进程中发挥重要的作用。本研究的目的是通过一些案例分析,揭示贸易自由化对中国和世界经济的影响。采用全球贸易模型,我们分析了MFA和在多哈回台初期欧盟、美国和凯恩斯集团分别提出的贸易自由化提案。研究结果表明,虽然取消MFA对一些国家纺织部门带来冲击,但它极大地促进了大多数国家经济的发展,改善了全球福利;多哈谈判过程中提出的各种贸易自由化提案都在不同程度上促进世界经济的发展,但其影响大小依次为凯恩斯提案、美国提案和欧盟提案;贸易自由化对经济的影响在不同部门和不同国家间存在显著差别;更大程度的贸易自由化不但符合全球共同利益,也符合中国国家利益;中国在推动全球贸易自由化过程中应发挥更积极和更大的作用。 Economic globalization and trade liberalization have been developing smoothly and are expected to continue in the future. The Doha Round of trade negotiation and the recent phasing out of the Multi Fiber Agreement (MFA) have stimulated the process of trade liberalization. The overall goal of this study is to examine the impacts on China and world economy of the recent phasing out of MFA and the proposals for trade liberalization provided by EU, USA and CAIRNS group. Based on a general equilibrium model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), this study shows that the world economy will gain more than US$ 10 billion from the phasing out of MFA, though the loss may present in a few countries. USA, EU, China and India are major gainers. The success of Doha Round negotiation will have much substantial effect on the global economy. World income will increase by about US$ 100 billion in 2010. China is one of major countries that gain most from the Doha Round of trade negotiation. Among the proposals examined, China gains more from CAIRNS and US proposals than from EU proposal. China should press for global trade liberalization as this is consistent with China' s national interests.

作者黄季焜杨军 Frank van Tongeren Hans van Meijl

机构地区中国科学院农业政策研究中心荷兰农业经济研究所

出处《地理科学进展》 CSCD 北大核心 2005年第1期1-10,共10页 Progress in Geography

基金本项研究得到国家自然科学基金(70021001)中国科学院(KZCX3-SW-419)荷兰农业部的资助

关键词贸易自由化贸易分析模型经济影响中国全球 trade liberalization GTAP economic impacts China world

分类号 F746 [经济管理—国际贸易]

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