摘要
以太阳活动为中心，以长期和超长期水文预报为目标，用数理统计分析方法，分析太阳黑子、埃尔尼诺事件（Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏｅｖｅｎｔ）对松花江区域水文影响特征与其水、旱灾害发生的基本规律。揭示了“埃尔尼诺”和太阳活动１１年周期的联系，把１８１０年～１９９１年间的太阳活动按强度划分为强弱两段，给出了强弱两段中事件产生不同水文影响的黑子数临界值，建立以黑子数为参数的“同年”水文计算的方程式。分析了１８９８年以来强弱两段中事件影响松花江流域发生水、旱灾害的规律性；用降水量为指标分析旱涝规律，揭示了降水量按磁周期时段呈丰、枯水周期性变化的规律。研究结果为长期水文预报提供了途径。
Based on sun's activity data, the effect of sunspot and E1 Nino event on the hydrologic regime and the flood and drought long-term fluctuation of the Songhua River region was analyzed by using statistical method for long-term predictiod. The relationship between the E1 Nino event and 11-year period of sun's acidity was revealed through dividing the sun's activity into a strong and a wad sechon during 1810￣1991, a'same year' hydrologic compution formula with sunspot numbers as a parameter was proposed, the fluctuation of the flood and drought influenced by the events in the strong and weak sections was analyzed since 1899, and the periodc change of annual precipitation with the high and low water year was given according to the magnetic cycle.
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
1994年第4期319-327,共9页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
松花江流域
水灾
旱灾
长期预报
太阳黑子
规律
sunspot
E1 Ni o event
same year
magnetic cycle
flood and drought
long-term prediction
Songhua River Basin
