摘要
本文运用竺可桢教授在北京所作的一份２４ａ的树木物候记录，研究提出了一种新的用于季节预报的数学工具──准最适物候回归模式．回报检验的效果良好．这一组六个准最适物候回归模式，可以用来进行北京地区春至初夏期间季节动态的测报．使用这些模式的一般数学表达式和本文提出的误差评判法还可以对其他地方作进一步的具体研究，获取当地的季节测报模式，更重要的是，这种拓广的研究。
Four phenological series of trees from professor Zhu Kezhen have been used to study the forecast of phenphases in spring and summer,and a new statistical method, so called qusifittest regression equation, has been developed.The fitting test shows that these equations are suitable for estimating the dates of the latter phenophases with the dates of the former phenophases and a few simple statistics are given by the local phenological calendar.
出处
《首都师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
1994年第4期79-84,共6页
Journal of Capital Normal University：Natural Science Edition
关键词
季节预报
物候回归模式
误差评判法
seasonal forecast,quasi-fittest phenological regression model, error judgement,Beijing
