摘要
本文提出了东海台风１２４～７２小时路径ＣＬＩＰＥＲ全样本预报模式和ＣＬＩＰＥＲ分类预报模式，特别是设计了一套根据运动台风不断变化的区域及其前期运动趋势而采用不同的预报模式和预报方程的方法．五年２８倒台风的试报表明，２４、４８、７２小时预报误差分别为１Ｉ９，２１５，３２９海里，精度明显高于国内外类似模式，而且该方法简便、易行，适合于海洋预报台和气象台站作台风路径的客观预报，特别是可作为配有ＩＢＭ微机的远洋船舶从事船上气象导航时的台风路径预报工具．
The CLIPER prediction models by using both entire and subgroup sample were developed to predict the zonal and meridional displacements of typhoon over East China Sea (120°～135°E, 10°～40°N ) at 24～72 h intervals.Especially, We selected different prediction equations according to thedifferent typhoon-born region and the motion trend, Five-year predictionswith 28 cases for the typhoon over East China Sea, It has been shown that24 h, 48 h and 72 h predicted average vector errors are 109, 215, 329 mile,respectively, which being obviously less than those from the domesticand foreign similary models. Moreover, the model is convenient arid qualified as a objective prediction approach for the marine observatory and meteorological stations, especially as a forecast tool for the Weather Routingof Ships with a IBM personnal computer.
出处
《海洋预报》
北大核心
1994年第4期22-33,共12页
Marine Forecasts
关键词
台风路径预报
预报模式
东海
台风
Typhoon track prediction
CLIPER forecast model: Typhoonover East China Sea.
