摘要
应用灰色模型理论，分析了各影响海面变化因素的影响力度，指出影响浙 江海面趋势性变化的主要因素是气温，建立了海面变化的灰色气温模型，其计算值 与实测值吻合良好，可根据气温变化趋势预测未来海面变化趋势。若未来百年全球 气温再上升１．５～５．ＳＣ，浙江海面将对应上升２４～７８ｃｍ。灰色模型模拟还显示， 未来平均高潮位上升速率明显大于平均低潮位上升速率，潮差将逐渐增大，在相同 平均海面升幅的情况下，未来海面上升对海岸带的影响要比均匀上升大得多。
Based on the gray model theory, the main elements which influence sea-level changes are firstly analysed. It is pointed out that the majorest element which affects future sea-level changes is air temperature. Then the sea-level gray model affected by air temperature is established and used to predict sea-level changes. It is shown that the predicted sea-levels are well consistent with observed values and is suggested that the sea-level will rise responsively 24-78 cm if the air temperature rises 1. 5-5. 5 ℃ in the future century. It is also shown that the mean ho tidal-level rises more rapidly than the mean low tidal-level and mean tidal ranges are increasing on the affection of nonlinear reflection to tidal wave in Zhejiang coast which will bring up great pressure on the future coastal protections.
出处
《海洋科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1994年第3期61-65,共5页
Marine Sciences
关键词
海平面变化
潮差
灰色模型
预测
Gray model prediction, Sea-level changes, Tidal range increase
