摘要
东部产油区是我国石油工业的支柱产区,其石油产量长期以来一直占全国总产量的90％以上。本文采用费尔哈斯法对东部产油区的生产发展过程进行了分析,对未来东部石油产量作出中长期预测。预测结果表明,我国东部石油生产已进入发展的成熟期,其产量已接近或达到高峰期(预测我国东部油区年产量的理论极限值约为13000万吨),并处于相对稳定的状态中。我国东部油区的稳产期大致在1986～2002年之间,稳产期的产量约为12500万吨。之后东部油区将进入衰退期,产量到2003年将降至10000万吨,2005～2015年石油年产量将由8500万吨左右迅速跌至大约2300万吨,到2020年将减少到1020万吨。
The Chinese oil industry's key oil producing zones are those of Eastern China. The oil output in that region has consistently provided over 90% of the national total. Adopting Verhulst methodology this article gives an analysis of the development of Eastern China's oil producing zones and presents a long - term and mid-term forecast of oil output in those areas. According to this forecast,oil production in Eastern China has entered a stage of development maturity, and output has neared or reached its ceiling which according to the methodology has a theoretical maximum annual output of about 130 MT. The stage of stable yields is to be reached sometime between the years 1996 to 2000 with an annual output of 125 MT, Next, the oil producing zones will en- counter a stage of recession with an annual output in the year 2003 of 100 MT. This total will continue to fall in the years 2005 to 2015 with annual outputs from 85 MT to 23 MT. By the year 2020 output will have shrunk to 10. 2 MT.
出处
《国际石油经济》
1994年第3期21-24,共4页
International Petroleum Economics
