摘要
应用趋势面分析法进行疾病地理分布描述的研究，并举了两个例子（一是中国总性病发病率数据，二是美国梅毒的数据，均为官方公布的资料）介绍分析方法与结果。分析表明，五阶趋势面方程能较好地拟合美国数据变异现象的８１％，用于中国数据则可解释变异现象的９５％。高发曲面的分布趋势，中美两国有关性病均有沿海高发和南高北低的特征，提示对外交往频繁的沿海和国境，应作为控制流行的重点地带。
This is a report of the study on the geographical distribution of disease,using the method of Trend-Surface Analysis(TSA).The examples are some STDs,adapted from China and the United States. Zi is the actual prevalence data.The data from two countries can be properly fitted by means of 5th-steps Trend-Surface Function(TSF).The longitude(Xi)and latitude(Yi)in the middle of every province/state were measured by a standard map.With the Xi,Yi and Zi,the TSF was made out according to the regression model contained in the software of SPSS/PC4.0.The 'U'-shaped curve-surface of higher prevalence could be seen in the two countries,characterized by higher level at the coastal areas than the other parts,and higher prevalence on the south than on the north.This study indicated that STDs control in the coastal areas and the provinces/states near by the boundary lines should be greatly emphasized because of its frequent external exchanges in these areas.
关键词
趋势
疾病
地理分布
流行病学
trend-surface analysis geographical distribution of diseases
