摘要
鉴于目前地震学综合定量预报指标的缺乏和预报工作的急需,尝试使用“对比筛选法(简称CSM方法)”进行地震学定量预报指标的提取试验。较之以往作法的进展在于:1.同时使用“有震”和“无震”两类样本对比筛选;2.对不同地区的地震学参数进行了归一化处理。这样做的显著优点是:1.可以较有效地提取“有震异常”和“正常变化”指标;2.提取的异常和预报指标具有定量化和普适性特点。 试验研究使用大华北地震区资料,研究对象取中强地震。经内符和外推检验,证明该方法提取的异常和预报指标有效性和实用性较高。
A new method for screening quantitative prediction index of seismology:the com-paring-screening method has been proposed in this paper. The method has two developments compared with the common ones: (1) the indexes are selected by comparing two kinds of samples, 'strong events occurred' and 'no strong events occurred'; (2) selection is based on normalizing the seismicity parameters in different regions. This method shows two advantages: (1) two kinds of quantitative indexes for the 'abnormal' and 'normal' can be effectively selected at same time; (2) the obtained integral prediction indexes are characterized by quantification and universalization.
Taking the moderately strong earthquakes occurred in North China as the test samples, some integral prediction indexes have been selected. The retrospecting and further testing shows that the indexes are very practical and efficient.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1994年第4期14-22,共9页
Earthquake
关键词
地震学
定量预报指标
提取法
comparing-screening
quantitative prediction index
test sample
seis- micity parameter
