摘要
对间断雨量序列有雨、无雨状态的交替变化规律，本文沿用马尔可夫转移概率描述。对间断雨量的模拟，本文提出对不同状态，依据其条件雨量序列的统计性质，分别采用不同的方法描述：①由无雨转到有雨时，有雨序列用一定概率分布刻划；②由有雨转到有雨时，若两个有雨序列之间是相关的，则采用某种相依随机模型表征，若是相互无关的，则后一个雨量序列也用一定概率分布刻划。实测雨量资料初步检验表明、该方法随机模拟间断雨量序列是成功的。
The Markov transition probability has been used to describe the interchange properties of the states of rain and non-rain in this paper. For analysisand generation of inretmittent rain processes the diffirent models may be aplied. When a state of non-rain transits to that of rain, the variation of rain canbe charaterized by a probabilistic distribution model. When a state of rain transits to that of rain, the following models may be adopted: a stochastic dependent model for dependent rain sequence; a probabilistic distribution nodel forindependent rain sequence.Based on the observed data, the verification has shown that the procedureherein is good for generating inrermittent rain sequence.
基金
水利水电科学基金
关键词
间断雨量序列
概率分布
随机模拟
降水
intermittent rain sequence, transition probability, probabilisticdistribution, stochastic dependent model, stochastic generation
