摘要
Ｏｅｒｌｅｍａｎｓ等（１９９２）用能量平衡模式所做的全球冰川和小冰帽物质平衡的敏感性试验表明，未来全球１Ｋ增温引起的山地冰川和小冰帽的加速消融将使海面上升０．５８ｍｍ／ａ。比Ｍｅｉｅｒ早些时候的估计值小了１倍以上。近来有关大陆冰盖雪积累率随气温升高而增加的报道引起了广泛的注意。１９７５—１９８５年比１９３０—１９８５年平均增加了～２０％，这意味着导致海面下降０．１—１．２ｍｍ／ａ。可能人类面临海面上升的威胁将会有所缓和。但是大陆冰盖是在消融、缩小，还是在缓慢增长尚难确定。在尚未搞清冷圈对全球变暖的响应之前，海面变化预测的不确定性是不可避免的。
An estimate of world－wide glacier sensitivity based on a modeling study performed byOerlemans shows that for an uniform 1K warming the glacier mass balance will decrease by0．4 m ／a． This corresponds to a sea－level rise of 0．58 mm ／a，a value half less than Meiersestimates． However it appears that even a significant increase in precipitation can not com－pensate for increased melting， and further shrinkage of glaciers and small ice caps must occurin a warmer climate．Several recent reports of polar ice－sheet growth interpreted that accumulation rates inAntarctica vary in proportion to mean annual air temperature， and recent accumulation retes（1975—1985） are 20％ above the long－term mean （1930—1985）． This increase in accumula－tion rate should contribute to a lowering of sea level of 0．1—1．2 mm ／a．Measurement ofGreenland surfaee elevation by satellite altimetry suggests that the ice－sheet elevation is in－creasing． The spatially averaged elevation change is 0．23 m ／a thickening． The implied globalsea level depletion is 0．2 to 0．4mm／a．It does appear that growth in ice sheets will damp fu－ture sea level rise and a reduced threat in sea level rise is likely． On the other hand，at present，studies supporting recent ice sheet growth depend on limited measurements，and are chal－lenged by a simple model inteopretation．So that，large uncertainties exist in the present know－ledge of the redueed rise in sea level．
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
1994年第3期274-282,共9页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
关键词
冷圈
全球变暖
海面上升
：glacier mass balance， snow accumulation rate， ice sheet growth，sea level rise
