摘要
每个决策者必需有高瞻远瞩的能力,至少他要知道预测的重要性。当前,已有几百种预测方法可用,这说明,被预测事件是复杂的,不是用一种方法就可以作好预测的,本文,将被预测事件按预测的难易程度分为三大类。其中,第Ⅲ类是受到兴趣各异的人群的相互作用、处于多变环境下的事件,由于这类事件的变化关系的信息和证据缺乏,预测的机理不清,因而极难预测,这类事件往往又都是社会经济系统中极为重要的事件,对于它们的决策,规划和策略稍有不当,就会造成严重损失。因此,必须对它们的预测和决策的方法进一步研究,本文提出了四个方面的改善这类事件预测的办法。
Every decision maker requires an ability to look foreward into the future, he/she must know how to forecast, or at least how to ask professional forecaster to help him/her. There are several hundred different forecasting approaches in use, the large amount of approaches implies that the events being forecast are very complex and hard to predict with reguired accuracy. In this paper, the future events are classified into three classes according to the degree of easiness in forecasting. The events under class Ⅲ are influented by groups of people with different interests and under variable environmental conditions, they are difficult to forecast owing to lack of information about the interaction between different groups of people, want of protents, need of theoretical basis for forecasting such events. However, they are also the important events in the social-economic systems. Any error in decision making, planning and policy formulating on them will lead to great loss. Therefore better ways to forecast and make decision on them should be studied. In this paper, four different ways to better the forecasting approacthes are proposed.
出处
《系统工程学报》
CSCD
1993年第2期111-118,共8页
Journal of Systems Engineering
基金
中国自然科学基金(项目号:79270059)
1993年教委博士点基金
