摘要
本文简要介绍了森林火灾年际活动中重灾时段(年)的客观规律性以及在所有被考察年价中的比重、损失状况,对运用ENSO预测预报森林火灾重灾年景的未来应用前景及可能产生的经济、生态效益作了评价,并论述了森林火灾(Forest Fire)与厄尔尼诺(El Nino)、南方涛动(Southern Oscillation)异常关系(缩写为FF-ENSO)研究的发展趋势及可能方向,以及避免或控制ENSO对森林火灾年际活动影响的对策。
According to phasal research results of a project undertaken by the au-thor and funded by NSFC, and to research information and literature both domes-tic and abroad, a brief introduction is made of the interval of heavy fires in annualforest fire activity and its principal pattern of occurrence and of the proportion ofheavy fire interval in the years of investigation and losses incurred. In researches onthe theory and method of early prediction of annual activity of forest fire and the in-terval of heavy fires, a discussion is conducted on the necessity, purpose and sig-nificance of citing the abnormal geophysical factors concerning the El Nino and ab-normal southern oscillation. Research method, progress, advantages and partic-ular points of the above mentioned projects both domestic and abroad are ex-pounded. An evaluation is made of the prospect of applying El Nino and southernoscillation index to early predict the year of heavy forest fires, and of the conse-quent economic returns and ecological benefits. Finally, the author points out thethree possible trends and direction in researches on the abnormal relation of El Ninoand southern oscillation, and the measures to avoid or control the aggravating ef-fect of abnormal El Nino- southern oscillation on the annual forest fireactivity. This paper contains 3 illustrations, 1 table and 12 references. It is a highlevel comprehensive treatise on present annual forest fire activity and abnormal ElNino- southern oscillation.
出处
《世界林业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1993年第1期31-38,共8页
World Forestry Research
基金
国家自然科学基金
