摘要
在改进传统四阶段预测方法的基础上,设计预测系统的总体结构和流程,介绍供需平衡调整方法,着重阐述系统在多方式运输网络拓扑结构描述方法、广义费用的构成和路径选择模型的改进3方面的工作,并开发了相应的计算机软件系统。在含拟建京沪客运专线在内的多方式运输网的基础上建立研究案例,采用"有无项目"对比的方法,使用所开发的软件系统分析了对比方案中京沪沿线相关区域运输需求的变化。
This paper proposes a demand prediction system considering multimodal transportation, designs the computational software through improving the conventional four-step planning method and presents the method of balancing between transportation supply and demand. This paper also emphasizes particularly the topology design of multi-modal transportation, the structure of generalized costs, the route choice model and the development of the software system. This paper eventually analyzes the transportation demand variations of the regions along the Jing-Hu Railway based on the multimodal transport network through the with/without project method using the software system developed by the authors.
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第6期1-7,共7页
Journal of the China Railway Society
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70173014)
铁道部软科学研究计划项目(2002F007)
北京交通大学交通运输智能技术与系统教育部重点实验室开放项目(2003 02)
关键词
运输需求预测
多方式运输网
四阶段预测方法
transportation demand prediction
multimodal transport network
four-step planning method
