摘要
本文利用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型逐段滑动平均模拟趋势产量y_t,根据单季晚稻的穗数、粒数和粒重对最终产量的贡献确定出生育三个阶段的权重,算出各阶段的气象产量。通过MAICE逐步回归方法分别建立各介生育阶段末气候产量的预测模式,分段加权动态地进行单季晚稻的产量预测。最后还作了1986—1988年产量的试报。
Using the stagewise moving average of the Grey System model GM (1,1) ,the trend yield Yt is simulated. According to the number of the cars and grain as well as the weight, of a grain,especially their contribution to the yield, the weight coefficients of three growing stages are developed and the climate-related yield of each stage is also found out. The predicting models for climate-related yield each stage are established with MA1CE successive regression method. And the rice yield is predicted dynamically by piecewise weighting.Finally, the yields of 1986 -1988 are estimated.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
1989年第11期30-34,共5页
Meteorological Monthly
