摘要
本文用列联表分析、权重列联比、多因子综合相关、分档统计、转移概率和模糊综合评判,分析了14组已发表的病虫害预测预报资料,在相同的数据分级标准下,预测拟合最好的方法是权重列联比,其次是分档统计、多因子综合相关。模糊综合评判与列联表分析、转移概率基本相同,它们与前三种方法的预测效果有明显的差异。因此在进行病虫害分级预测预报时,应首先选择权重列联比、分档统计等方法。对模糊综合评判的预测性能应有正确认识。
The predictabilities of six methods forecasting pest, contigency table, weighted contigency table, multifactorial related analysis, archetectural statistics, transform probability and fuzzy multifactorial evluation, were comparised by analysing 14 groups of priviously published data. The best methods are weighted contigency table and archetectural contigency statistics. Fuzzy multifactorial evaluation is not better than others.
基金
内蒙古自治区科委
教育厅
关键词
预测
病虫害防治
pest, forecast, methed comparision
