摘要
本文在对“关键性选举”及其在美国政党和选举政治中的作用进行分析的基础上 ,进一步对相关理论进行评介 ,并以此为分析框架论述了2 0世纪 6 0年代末以来美国选举政治的变化及其对美国政治进程和 2 0 0 4年大选的意义。作者认为 ,新政政党体制的解体使两党选民基础的社会和地理结构、选民的政党认同等发生了显著和持续的变化。这些变化对当今美国选举政治产生了重要的影响 ,其中最主要的是短期因素在美大选中的作用增大和造成两党在全国性选举中势均力敌的格局。 2 0 0 4年大选仍将是民主、共和两党间一场实力均衡的较量 ,九一一事件及布什政府所进行的反恐和对伊战争使美国全国的政治议程和选举议题发生了显著变化 ,此次大选的突出特点是外交与安全问题成为选举的主要议题。从美国选举政治的走向来看 ,在近期和可预见的未来仍难以形成一党长期控制白宫和国会的格局。政党选民重新组合和政党选民联盟解体两种趋向并存将长期主导美国选举政治的走向。
Following an analysis of critical elections and the role they play in American election politics, this article further comments on related theories and reviews. It elaborates changes in American election politics since the end of the 1960s and points out their significance in American political process and the 2004 elections. The author believes that the disintegration of New Deal party system has brought about evident and continuous changes in the social and demographic structure of electorate bases and party identification. The 2004 elections will continue to be a match between the two political parties of generally equal strength. The outstanding feature of the current election is that foreign policy and security issues have become the main focus. The trend of American election politics shows that it will be difficult for any single party to take control of both the White House and the Congress for long.
出处
《美国研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第3期7-29,共23页
The Chinese Journal of American Studies
