摘要
本文总结了息烽县二代粘虫的发生特点和发生规律。应用9年测报资料建立了一代蛾发蛾、产卵平均进度的Logistic曲线方程,用12年历史资料进行相关分析,筛选出6月15日累计蛾量(x_1)、6月上半月雨量(x_2)、6月上半月雨日·雨量积数(x_3)、一代3～5级雌蛾量(x_4)、6月平均气温(x_5)五个预报要素。用单因子回归预测式对各预报要素进行分级,以级值建立二代粘虫发生程度(y)的两个多元回归预测式: y_1=0.3624+0.55786x_1-0.3132x_2+0.6563x_3±0.7379; y_2=-0.0022+0.0309x_1-0.3696x_2+0.3529x_3+0.8620x_4+0.1040x_5±0.2805 用以上二式进行历史回报检验,历史符合率达100％。
This paper is the result of the studies on the bionomics and the forecasting technique of the second generation armyworm Leucania separata walker in Xifeng for many years by the author. The twelve years data of armyworm forecast and weather conditions were analysed. The results showed that the main factors with striking correlation to the level of outbreak of the second generation armyworm (y) in Xifeng county are the accumulative total of moth in June 15(x1),the total rainfall in June 1-15 (x2),the product of the rainfall times and rainy days in June 1-15(x3),the mean temperature in Jun(x4),and the grades 3-5 female moth of first generation (x5). Two multi-factorial regression prediction equations was established from grade number of the factors as follows:
y1 = 0.3624 + 0.5786x1 - 3.3132x2+ 0.65G3x3 ± 0.7379
y2 = - 0.0022+ 0.0309x1-0.3696x2+ 0.3529x3 +0.8620x4+ 0.1040x5 ±0.2805
The conformable ratio of backward inferences was up to 100% from two the regression equations.
出处
《贵州农业科学》
CAS
1993年第5期21-26,共6页
Guizhou Agricultural Sciences
关键词
粘虫
发生规律
测报
armyworm
bionomics
forecasting
predicition equation
