摘要
对区域干旱的概念和计算方法进行了研究,认为干旱问题应根据不同的干旱特征分区进行研究并提出针对性的解决措施。干旱研究不仅要考虑到干旱的水文特征,而且要考虑干旱风险所带来的后果。提出了分析干旱问题的理论框架。并将黄河下游引黄灌区划分为6个子区,应用多变量随机模型生成了月降水量资料系列。利用了33年的月降水量资料率定模型参数。应用生成的月降水量系列从理论风险性的观点研究了区域干旱问题。
Drought problem must be analyzed and solved at a regional level. Drought studies must focus not only on the hydrological characterization of the phenomena but also the results caused by drought. In this paper the concepts and methods to characterize droughts as regional process are presented. The concepts of risk, reliability, resiliency and vulnerability are applied to characterize regional droughts and provide a theoretical framework for dealing with drought problems. The paper divides the downstream Yellow River irrigated district into 6 sub-regions, and the multivariate stochastic model is used to generate a synthetic series of monthly precipitation at the six sub-regions. Thirty-three years of monthly rainfall data are used to calibrate the parameters of the model. The generated precipitation series is used to perform the study of regional droughts from the point of view of theoretical risk.
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第4期479-484,共6页
Advances in Water Science
基金
水利部948基金资助项目(CT200210)
关键词
区域干旱
风险特征
模型参数
理论
应用
regional drought
risk characteristics
model parameters
theory
application
