摘要
为了给海上稠油开发项目投资决策提供可靠和全面的依据 ,对方案的经济评价指标进行了不确定性分析 ,以预测项目可能承担的风险 ,从而确定项目财务、经济评价结果的可能性。同时运用修正的MonteCarlo风险分析法 ,对项目进行风险分析 ,认为该方案经济上可行 ,但存在一定的风险 。
In order to provide reliable basis to the investment decision of an offshore heavy oil development project, this paper analyzes the uncertainty of economic index to predict the possible risk of the project and to determine the feasibility of the fiscal decision. A corrected Monte Carlo method is also used to give project risk analysis. It is thought that, this project is economically feasible, but there is certain risk, and the oilfield can be recovered under existing economical and technical conditions.
出处
《特种油气藏》
CAS
CSCD
2004年第3期41-43,共3页
Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs
关键词
风险分析方法
热采
经济评价
海上稠油
不确定性
开发效果
risk analysis method
thermal recovery
economic assessment
offshore heavy oil
uncertainty
development response
