摘要
"北京先行经济指数"是我国第一个区域性先行经济指数,在试运行中取得了很好的效果。该指数以我国现行统计制度为基础,紧密结合北京实际,通过构造基准循环、"提取"先行指标、编制指数、返回检验等步骤,对北京先行经济指数的科学性和有效性进行了分析。先行指数超前GDP增速变化4～8个月这一重要研究结论在返回检验中得到了很好的证实。
The Anticipated Economic Index for Beijing, which is the first one of the kind developed in China, has been very effective in its performance. Based on the current statistic convention of the country, the author conducts an analysis in the scientificness and validity of the index. The fact that the present index is 4-8 months in advance of the GDP growth has been well established in the backtrack test.
出处
《山西财经大学学报》
北大核心
2004年第4期38-44,共7页
Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
2003年北京市软科学研究项目(项目编号:H023020010190)
关键词
先行指数
基准循环
返回检验
anticipated economic index
benchmark cycle
backtrack test
