摘要
根据1978-2003年的有效数据,对我国的金融成长差异进行实证分析和计量检验的研究结果表明,这期间并不存在区域金融成长差异的倒U形曲线,而是呈现三次曲线的变动态势,从更长时期看,倒U形曲线是否成立还未有定论,需要多方面指标的比较和未来时间的检验,但是区域金融成长的非均衡是长期存在的,这个结论同时也得到了演化经济理论的有力支撑,因此我国区域金融成长不能过度强调趋同,应该适度差距、系统优化、协调发展。
Based on econometric analysis of effective data from 1978 to 2003, this paper gets the following outcomes about Chinese regional financial growth: there is three changes of curves while no inverse U-shape curve; in the longer run, it needs more evidences for the inverse U-shape hypothesis; imbalance of our regional financial growth would be existed for a long time, which is also supported by the evolutionary economic theory. So, the convergence of our regional financial growth should not be stressed, and modest divergence should be retained.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第8期24-30,共7页
Economic Theory and Business Management
关键词
区域金融成长差异
“倒U”假说
时间序列分析
divergence of regional financial growth
inverse U-shape hypothesis
time series analysis
