摘要
本文认为华北地震是印度板块碰撞和太平洋板块俯冲联合作用下形成的。以我国东部大陆应力场近似幅射中心Q(λ_o=100°E、ψ_o=35°N)做印度板块碰撞影响下青海块体对华北俯冲作用代表、以东北M≥6深震近似重心S(λ_o=131.5°E、ψ_0=42.5°N、h=-575千米)做太平洋板块对华北俯冲作用代表,本世纪米华北M≥6地震呈现距此简化力源由近及远成串有序地发生,各活动期起始分别与青藏地震活动高潮和东北深震活动高潮相关的图象。据此建立了华北M≥6地震预测模型Q和模型S,历史地震预测实验表明两模型可以为华北M≥6地震预测提供线索。本文还对华北地震活动图象做了初步解释和讨论。
The author holds that the earthquakes occurred in North China are caused by the collision of India plate and the subduction of Pacific plate. In this paper, Q stands for the approximate central radiation area (λ =100°E,ψ= 35°N) of the stress field in the eastern mainland of China, and is formed by the subduction of Qing'hai block to North China with the collision of India plate. And S represents the approximate gravity centre (A =131.5°E,ψ = 42.5° N, h = -575 km) of the deep earthquakes (M≥6) occurred in Northeast China, and is caused by the subduction of Pacific plate to North China. Since the century, earthquakes (M≥6) in North Chna have occurred by the group in order around the simplified force sources (S and Q) from the near areas to the far ones. The beginning and end of each period of earthquake activity correspond to the fastigium of the earthquake activity in Qinghai-Xizang plateau and to that of the deep earthquake activity in Northeast China. Based on the results, the forecasting models Q and S of earthquake activity (M≥6 ) in North China have been established. The forecasting experiment of historical earthquake shows that the two models can provide the clue to forecast an earthquake (M≥6) which will occur in North China. Furthermore, the pattern of the earthquake activity in North China has been preliminarily explained and discussed.
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1993年第1期13-24,共12页
Journal of Seismological Research
关键词
地震
震级
预测
板块
应变波
Plate
Earthquakes in a group
Commensurability
Strain wave. North China
