摘要
从华北地区五条主要地震带上的中强地震资料人手,结合对各地震带上地震定向迁移规律已有认识,对各地震带带内未来5-20年内中强地震活动危险性及带内不同地段地震迁移概率进行了定量估计。震例检验结果表明,文中所用的对地震带发生中强地震的危险性计算、危险性排序和对各带带内地震迁移场所有概率估计方法具有较好的预测效果,预测结论可以作为未来华北地区中长期强震形势估计的参考依据。
Based on the historical records of strong earthquake and the knowledge of earthquake migration at the five main seismic belts in North China,we calculated the poten- tial risks for strong earthquake in the future five to twenty years and the migrating probabili- ties in the different parts of each belt.The test of the practicability of earthquake prediction both in times and spots shows that the methods used for figuring out probabilities of earthquake risks are practicable.The conclusion drawn in this paper can be used as a reference to make middle and long term prediction of strong earthquakes in North China.
出处
《地震地磁观测与研究》
1993年第3期25-32,共8页
Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research
关键词
地震带
强震
危险性
华北地区
seismically active belt
strong earthquake migration
Markov Chain
space migrating probability
seismic risk
