摘要
阐述了水库诱发地震与天然地震间的某种联系、诱发地震的若干类型、诱震的地质和构造地质特征,重点论证了水库诱震的统计特征及其趋势预测,认为:诱震机制可能是时空及人类活动影响因素的函数,普适性机制和预测模式也许并不存在,从现阶段而言,宏观统计预测显然是一可行途径,以监测统计数据为基础,建立了相应的泊松分布、单旋回模型以及灰色系统模型和有关的预测方程。趋势预测表明,随着高坝深度的增加,理论上并不能排除7级以上水库诱震发生的可能性。
First,the paper describes some relationship between induced earthquakes and natural ones,and the types as well as the geological and structural geological characteristics of the former earthquakes. As the important point, then, the statistical characteristics and the tending prognoses of the earthquake induced by reservoir are discussed. It is considered that the mechanism of induced earthquake may be a function of space-time and the influential factors of human being' s activities ,and the universal mechanism and determined prognostic mode may not exist. Obviously,the statistical prognosis is thought to be one of the practical approaches in the recent. Based on the monitoring statistical data,the Poisson distribution and its model,the grey system model and the relative equations are established correspondently. The result of tending prognosis denotes that the possibility cannot be theoretically ruled out that greater than 7 magnitude earthquake would occur with increasing height of the dam and depth of reservoir.
出处
《地球科学（中国地质大学学报）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1993年第5期653-659,共7页
Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences
关键词
水库
诱发地震
统计特征
趋势预测
earthquake induced by reservoir ,statistical characteristics ,tending prog- nosis.
