摘要
采用系统动力学方法对道路运输系统进行建模,克服了传统方法考虑系统因素较少的缺点,可以更有效的模拟系统。在 道路运输系统基本因果关系分析基础上,建立了道路旅客运输、道路货物运输供给与需求量预测系统动力学模型,并用吉林省道 路运输各相关统计数据对模型进行了仿真和验证,证明模型是有效的,方法可行。
The system dynamics (SD) method was used to establish model for system of road transportation (SRT) in this paper. This method can consider more factors and simulate SRT more efficiency, which conquer the shortcomings of traditional method. After analyzing causality of SRT, the SD model for forecast of road transportation quantity was established. The method was proved feasible and the model was proved efficiency by using the statistical data of Jilin province’s SRT.
出处
《农业与技术》
2004年第3期168-171,共4页
Agriculture and Technology
