摘要
新冠肺炎疫情爆发在短期内对中国经济造成了比较严重的影响,作为全球生产体系中的主要生产基地之一,疫情带来的中国产能损失通过全球生产网络对上下游经济体造成了严重冲击。本文基于世界投入产出模型提出了重大突发事件对全球生产网络冲击的测算框架,以新冠肺炎疫情对中国及上下游经济体的冲击为例给出了模型的应用实例。测算结果显示:截至2020年3月10日,新冠肺炎疫情导致的中国产能损失共造成4063亿美元的世界经济损失,其中32%为疫情通过全球生产网络对中国以外经济体造成的损失;分经济体来看,日本、美国等主要贸易伙伴以及中国台湾地区、马来西亚等亚洲供应链中的重要生产地受到较强冲击;分行业来看,参与全球价值链分工程度较高的技术密集型制造业和生产性服务业受到较大影响。在当前国际重大突发事件的发生概率和爆发频率都大幅度上升的背景下,本文提出的测算框架能够为快速评估重大突发事件短期影响强度,合理制定应急响应措施提供一定的参考。
The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease(COVID-19)had a severe impact on China’s economy in a short term.As one of the most important bases in the global production system,China experienced capacity loss due to the COVID-19,which caused serious shocks to the upstream and downstream economies in the global production network.This paper proposed a measurement framework for the impact of major emergencies on global production network based on world input-output model,and used the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on China together with the upstream and downstream economies as an empirical example for model application.The results show that by March 10 th,2020,the loss of production capacity in China due to the pandemic has caused a total worldwide economic loss of 406.3 billion US dollars,of which 32%is the loss of economies other than China in the production network.In terms of economies,China’s major trade partners,such as Japan and the United States,as well as important production partners in the Asian supply chain,such as Chinese Taiwan and Malaysia,will be strongly impacted.In terms of industries,the technology-intensive manufacturing and producer services,more involved in the global value chain,will be strongly affected.Under the background that the probability and frequency of major international emergencies are on the rise,the measurement framework proposed in this paper can provide some references for fast assessment of short-term impact and appropriate response to emergencies.
作者
高翔
徐然
祝坤福
张瑜
杨翠红
GAO Xiang;XU Ran;ZHU Kunfu;ZHANG Yu;YANG Cuihong
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第7期1-20,共20页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“中美经贸博弈的经济影响及我国对策研究”(19ZDA062)
国家自然科学基金应急专项“重大突发公共卫生事件对对外贸易、跨境投资的影响及对外贸易和投资政策”(72042019)
国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目“计量建模与经济政策研究”(71988101)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于供给使用表和考虑企业异质性的中国投入产出模型及应用研究”(71673269)
关键词
重大突发事件
全球生产网络
投入产出模型
新冠疫情
Major Emergencies
Global Production Network
Input-output Model
COVID-19 Pandemic
