摘要
建立向量自回归模型研究总人口、第三产业增加值、能耗强度三个方面影响因素对民用建筑运行能耗具体影响,采用ADF单位根对变量平稳性进行检验,采用协整检验分析变量间长期均衡关系,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析探究变量间短期动态关系。结果表明,总人口、第三产业增加值、能耗强度与民用建筑运行能耗存在长期稳定均衡关系,其中总人口对民用建筑运行能耗具有正向效应,而第三产业增加值和能耗强度与民用建筑运行能耗呈负相关关系。脉冲响应函数及方差分解结果显示民用建筑运行能耗对能耗强度冲击做出的响应最为强烈,并且能耗强度对民用建筑运行能耗贡献度最高。
A Vector Autoregressive(VAR)Model is established to study the specific impacts of the three dimensions,including total population,tertiary industry added value,and the intensity of energy consumption,on the energy consumption of civil buildings.ADF unit root test is used to test the stability of the variables,and co-integration test is used to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship between variables.The impulse response function and analysis of variance are utilized to explore the short-term dynamic relationship between variables.The results show that there is a long-term stable and balanced relationship between the total population,tertiary industry added value,the intensity of energy consumption,and the energy consumption of civil buildings.The total population has a positive effect on the energy consumption of civil buildings.But tertiary industry added value and the intensity of energy consumption have negative correlation with the energy consumption of civil buildings.The results of impulse response function and variance decomposition show that the energy consumption of civil building responds most strongly to the impact of shock of the intensity of energy consumption,and the intensity of energy consumption contributes the most to the energy consumption of civil building.
作者
裴丽倩
刘伊生(指导)
原境彪
PEI Li-qian;LIU Yi-sheng;YUAN Jing-biao(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Low Carbon Research and Education Center,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《建筑节能》
CAS
2020年第7期156-162,共7页
BUILDING ENERGY EFFICIENCY
基金
“十三五”国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFC0704400)
关键词
民用建筑运行能耗
向量自回归模型
影响因素
energy consumption of civil buildings
Vector Autoregressive Model
influencing factors
