摘要
随着我国房地产市场的发展,严密防范与化解城市房地产价格传染风险已经成为政府工作的重点内容之一。本文以ARIMA-R-Vine Copula模型为工具,分层次研究了国内城市房地产价格关联结构。实证表明:中国城市房价关联呈现网状结构;以武汉为节点,城市房价关联形成三个组:一线城市组、沿海-中部经济发达地区城市组、北方-西南经济欠发达地区城市组;城市房价风险传染的关联性和强度受到城市经济地位和地理位置的双重影响,且城市之间房价联动上涨的传染风险较大。研究结论对明晰我国主要城市房价风险传染结构,构筑房价长效风险管理机制具有重要参考价值。
With the development of my country’s real estate market,strict prevention and resolution of urban real estate price contagion risks has become one of the key contents of government work.This paper uses the ARIMA-R-Vine Copula model as a tool to study the correlation structure of domestic urban real estate prices on a hierarchical level.The empirical evidence shows that the correlation of housing prices in Chinese cities presents a network structure;with Wuhan as the node,the correlation of urban housing prices forms three groups:the first-tier city group,the coastal-central economically developed area city group,and the north-southwest economically underdeveloped area city group;urban housing prices The relevance and intensity of risk contagion are both affected by the economic status and geographic location of cities,and the risk of contagion is greater due to the linked rise of housing prices between cities.The research conclusions have important reference value for clarifying the structure of housing price risk in my country’s major cities and building a long-term housing price risk management mechanism.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2021年第7期49-53,164,共6页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目(71991475)宏观大数据建模和预测研究
中国社会科学院青年科研启动项目(2020YQNQD0031)中国房地产价格风险传染机制研究资助
