摘要
近几年,随着南水北调中线工程通水,密云水库的蓄水量持续增加,这种水库运行方式在提高北京市供水的保证率的同时会增加蒸发、渗漏等损失.因此,定量研究密云水库目前的运行方式具有重要的现实意义.本文以密云水库增加蓄水量前后的两种情形为研究对象,基于对冲理论研究了其调水成本和未来缺水风险,分析结果表明:(1)水库蓄水量增加能保证丹江口水库和北京市同时遭遇极端枯水年时的供水;(2)若北京市在未来遭遇来水频率为75%的枯水年时,能保证在未来3年满足用水需求;(3)目前密云水库的运行方式是一种以当前阶段较小蒸发、渗漏损失的增加为代价,来减小未来缺水风险的对冲行为.从理论上可以合理地解释目前密云水库的运行规则,是密云水库当地水与南水北调中线外调水对冲平衡的典型应用案例,为对冲理论在复杂水源类型的城市水资源供需管理领域的运用提供了参考和借鉴.
With the water supply from the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,the water storage capacity of the Miyun Reservoir increased recently,which will increase the loss of evaporation and leakage while increasing the guarantee rate of water supply in Beijing.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the current operation mode of Miyun Reservoir quantitatively.Based on the hedging theory,the water transfer cost and the future water shortage risk are studied.The analysis results show that:(1)The increase of reservoir water storage can ensure the Danjiangkou Reservoir and Beijing simultaneously.Water supply in the event of extreme dry years;(2)If Beijing encounters a dry year with a water frequency of 75%in the future,it can guarantee to meet the demand for water in the next three years;(3)The current operation mode of Miyun Reservoir is At the current stage,the increase in evaporation and leakage losses is at the cost of reducing the hedging behavior of future water shortage risks.In theory,it can reasonably explain the current operating rules of Miyun Reservoir,which is a typical application case of the water balance of the Miyun Reservoir local water and the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Line.It provides a basis for the application of hedging theory in the field of urban water supply and demand management of complex water sources.
作者
门宝辉
吴智健
刘焕龙
李扬松
张爱静
MEN Baohui;WU Zhijian;LIU Huanlong;LI Yangsong;ZHANG Aijing(College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Bureau of South to North Water Transfer of Planning,Designing and Management,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《应用基础与工程科学学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第6期1440-1449,共10页
Journal of Basic Science and Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401406)
关键词
密云调蓄工程
对冲
缺水风险
蓄水量
蒸发
渗漏
供水保证率
Miyun Reservoirs
hedge rules
risk of water shortage
water storage
evaporation
leakage
probability of water supply
