Various paleoclimate records have shown that the Asian monsoon was punctuated by numerous suborbital time-scale events, and these events were coeval with those that happened in the North Atlantic. This study investiga...Various paleoclimate records have shown that the Asian monsoon was punctuated by numerous suborbital time-scale events, and these events were coeval with those that happened in the North Atlantic. This study investigates the Asian summer monsoon responses to the Atlantic Ocean forcing by applying an additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic. The simulated results indicate that the cold North Atlantic and warm South Atlantic induced by the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation （THC） due to the freshwater flux lead to significantly suppressed Asian summer monsoon. The authors analyzed the detailed processes of the Atlantic Ocean forcing on the Asian summer monsoon, and found that the atmospheric teleconnection in the eastern and central North Pacific and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical North Pacific play the most crucial role. Enhanced precipitation in the subtropical North Pacific extends the effects of Atlantic Ocean forcing from the eastern Pacific into the western Pacific, and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean intensifies the circulation and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific and East Asia.展开更多
Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and cli...Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model （GCM） downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change （at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct） appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.展开更多
The impacts of weather and climate-related disasters are increasing,and climate change can exacerbate many disasters.Effectively communicating climate risk and integrating science into policy requires scientists and s...The impacts of weather and climate-related disasters are increasing,and climate change can exacerbate many disasters.Effectively communicating climate risk and integrating science into policy requires scientists and stakeholders to work together.But dialogue between scientists and policymakers can be challenging given the inherently multidimensional nature of the issues at stake when managing climate risks.Building on the growing use of serious games to create dialogue between stakeholders,we present a new game for policymakers called Climate Attribution Under Loss and Damage:Risking,Observing,Negotiating(CAULDRON).CAULDRON aims to communicate understanding of the science attributing extreme events to climate change in a memorable and compelling way,and create space for dialogue around policy decisions addressing changing risks and loss and damage from climate change.We describe the process of developing CAULDRON,and draw on observations of players and their feedback to demonstrate its potential to facilitate the interpretation of probabilistic climate information and the understanding of its relevance to informing policy.Scientists looking to engage with stakeholders can learn valuable lessons in adopting similar innovative approaches.The suitability of games depends on the policy context but,if used appropriately,experiential learning can drive coproduced understanding and meaningful dialogue.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (GrantNos. 40221503 and 40523001)the EU EN-SEMBLES (GOCE-CT-2003-505539)DYNAMITE(003903-GOCE) projects at the National Centre for Atmo-spheric Science. We would like to thank Jonathan Gregoryfor performing the coupled model simulations in the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and for mak-ing them available to us, and to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.
文摘Various paleoclimate records have shown that the Asian monsoon was punctuated by numerous suborbital time-scale events, and these events were coeval with those that happened in the North Atlantic. This study investigates the Asian summer monsoon responses to the Atlantic Ocean forcing by applying an additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic. The simulated results indicate that the cold North Atlantic and warm South Atlantic induced by the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation （THC） due to the freshwater flux lead to significantly suppressed Asian summer monsoon. The authors analyzed the detailed processes of the Atlantic Ocean forcing on the Asian summer monsoon, and found that the atmospheric teleconnection in the eastern and central North Pacific and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical North Pacific play the most crucial role. Enhanced precipitation in the subtropical North Pacific extends the effects of Atlantic Ocean forcing from the eastern Pacific into the western Pacific, and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean intensifies the circulation and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific and East Asia.
基金funded by the National 973 Program of China (2012CB955904)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31171452)the Sustainable Agriculture Innovation Network initiated and funded by Defra UK and Minstry of Agriculture of China (H5105000)
文摘Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model （GCM） downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change （at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct） appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.
基金part of the Attributing Impacts of External Climate Drivers on Extreme Weather in Africa(ACE-Africa)research project funded by the National Environmental Research Council(NERC) under Grant NE/K005472/1the development of CAULDRON was also supported by the NERC-funded Enabling Quantification for Uncertainty of Inverse Problems(EQUIP) projectthe Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA)
文摘The impacts of weather and climate-related disasters are increasing,and climate change can exacerbate many disasters.Effectively communicating climate risk and integrating science into policy requires scientists and stakeholders to work together.But dialogue between scientists and policymakers can be challenging given the inherently multidimensional nature of the issues at stake when managing climate risks.Building on the growing use of serious games to create dialogue between stakeholders,we present a new game for policymakers called Climate Attribution Under Loss and Damage:Risking,Observing,Negotiating(CAULDRON).CAULDRON aims to communicate understanding of the science attributing extreme events to climate change in a memorable and compelling way,and create space for dialogue around policy decisions addressing changing risks and loss and damage from climate change.We describe the process of developing CAULDRON,and draw on observations of players and their feedback to demonstrate its potential to facilitate the interpretation of probabilistic climate information and the understanding of its relevance to informing policy.Scientists looking to engage with stakeholders can learn valuable lessons in adopting similar innovative approaches.The suitability of games depends on the policy context but,if used appropriately,experiential learning can drive coproduced understanding and meaningful dialogue.
