The increase in frequency and intensity of Extreme High-temperature Events(EHEs)over Central-Eastern China(CEC)in recent decades has severely impacted social development and livelihoods.Using observation and reanalysi...The increase in frequency and intensity of Extreme High-temperature Events(EHEs)over Central-Eastern China(CEC)in recent decades has severely impacted social development and livelihoods.Using observation and reanalysis datasets,this study explores the effect of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream(EAJ)on the CEC EHEs for the summers spanning 1979–2020.Considering its general relative location to the right side of the upper-level jet stream exit region,CEC would theoretically suffer more EHEs with a stronger and northwardly-shifted EAJ in summer due to the likelihood of abnormal subsidence induced by the EAJ.However,such an EAJ–EHE connection has been unstable over the past four decades but has displayed an evident interdecadal change.Before the late 1990s,the interannual variation of the EAJ was manifested mainly by its meridional displacement in the northeastern part of East Asia;thus,the atmospheric responses were essentially located to the east of CEC,exerting less of an influence on the CEC EHEs.However,since the late 1990s,the EAJ variation has featured an intensity change in its center over the northwest portion of the CEC,which has resulted in a westward shift in atmospheric responses to cover the CEC region.Therefore,the EAJ could potentially affect the summer CEC EHEs during 2000–21.Our findings offer support for an in-depth understanding of the formation mechanisms of extreme weather/climate events of this nature and thus provide a scientific reference for seasonal climate predictions.展开更多
This study investigates why an extreme hot midsummer occurred in Central and South China(CSC) during 2017. It is shown that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) was abnormally intensified and westward-ext...This study investigates why an extreme hot midsummer occurred in Central and South China(CSC) during 2017. It is shown that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) was abnormally intensified and westward-extending,resulting in anomalous high pressure and consequent extreme heat over CSC. The abnormal WNPSH was favored by the warming of the western tropical Pacific(WTP), which was unrelated to ENSO and manifested its own individual effect.The WTP warming enhanced the convection in-situ and led to anomalous high pressure over CSC via a local meridional circulation. The influence of the WTP was confirmed by CAM4 model experiments. A comparison between the 2017 midsummer and 2010 midsummer(with a stronger WNPSH but weaker extreme heat) indicated that the influence of the WNPSH on extreme heat can be modulated by the associated precipitation in the northwestern flank.The role of the WTP was verified by regression analyses on the interannual variation of the WTP sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA). On the other hand, the WTP has undergone prominent warming during the past few decades, resulting from decadal to long-term changes and favoring extreme warm conditions. Through a mechanism similar to the interannual variation, the decadal to long-term changes have reinforced the influence of WTP warming on the temperature over CSC,contributing to the more frequent hot midsummers recently. It is estimated that more than 50% of the temperature anomaly over CSC in the 2017 midsummer was due to the WTP warming, and 40% was related to the decadal to long-term changes of the WTP SSTA.展开更多
Impacts of EI Nino Modoki （ENM）, La Nina Modoki （LNM）, canonical EI Nifio （CEN） and canonical La Nifia （CLN） on tropical cyclones （TCs） that made landfall over China's Mainland during 1951-2011 are analy...Impacts of EI Nino Modoki （ENM）, La Nina Modoki （LNM）, canonical EI Nifio （CEN） and canonical La Nifia （CLN） on tropical cyclones （TCs） that made landfall over China's Mainland during 1951-2011 are analysed using best-track data from China, the USA and Japan. Relative to cold phase years （LNM and CLN）, landfalling TCs in warm years （ENM and CEN） have a farther east genesis location, as well as longer track lengths and durations, both in total and before landfall. ENM demonstrates the highest landfall frequency, most northerly mean landfall position, and shortest after-landfall sustainability （track length and duration）, which indicate a more frequent and extensive coverage of China's Mainland by TCs, but with shorter after-landfall influence. CEN has low landfall frequency and the most southerly mean landfall location. LNM has the most westerly genesis location, being significantly farther west than the 1951-2011 average and leading to short mean track lengths and durations both in total or before landfall, all of which are significantly shorter than the 1951-2011 average. Variations in the low-level wind anomaly, vertical wind shear, mid-level relative humidity, steering flow, the monsoon trough and the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） can to some extent account for the features of frequency, location, track length and duration of landfalling TCs. Since ENSO Modoki is expected to become more frequent in the near future, the results for ENSO Modoki presented in this paper are of particular significance.展开更多
Tropical cyclone （TC） genesis over the South China Sea （SCS） during 1965–2004 was analyzed. The locations of TC genesis display evident seasonal changes, with the mean position of formation situated north of 15 &...Tropical cyclone （TC） genesis over the South China Sea （SCS） during 1965–2004 was analyzed. The locations of TC genesis display evident seasonal changes, with the mean position of formation situated north of 15 °N in summer （June–July–August） and south of 15 °N in autumn （September–October–November）. The TC genesis in summer underwent dramatic interdecadal variations, with more and less TC frequency during 1965–1974/1995–2004 and 1979–1993, respectively. In contrast, a significant interannual variation of TC genesis with a period of ～4 years was observed in autumn. This study investigated the relationship of SCS TC genesis to the East Asian jet stream （EAJS） and the western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH） on an interdecadal time scale. Analysis and comparison of the impacts of the EAJS and the WNPSH on vertical wind shear changes indicate that changes in the WNPSH and EAJS intensity rather than EAJS meridional location are responsible for changes in TC genesis on an interdecadal time scale. Corresponding to a weaker EAJS, anomalous Rossby wave energy at upper levels displays equatorward propagation at midlatitudes and poleward propagation in the subtropics. This induces anomalous convergence and divergence of wave activity fluxes in East Asia around 30 °N and the SCS, respectively. The anomalous divergence of wave activity fluxes reduces easterlies at upper levels over the SCS, which is favorable to TC genesis.展开更多
Global climate models predict that the increasing Amazoniandeforestation rates cause rising tempera tures （increases of 1.8℃ to 8℃ under different conditions） and Amazonian drying over the 21st century. Observatio...Global climate models predict that the increasing Amazoniandeforestation rates cause rising tempera tures （increases of 1.8℃ to 8℃ under different conditions） and Amazonian drying over the 21st century. Observations in the 20th century also show that over the warmer continent and the nearby western South At lantic Ocean, the lowerlayer equatorial westerly wind （LLEWW） strengthens with the initiation of tropical cyclones （TCs）. The warmercontinentrelated LLEWW can result from the Coriolisforceinduced deflection of the crossequatorial flow （similar to the wellknown heatisland effect on sea breeze） driven by the enhanced landsea contrast between the warmer urbanized continents and relatively cold oceans. This study focuses on the processes relating the warmercontinentrelated LLEWW to the TC initiation and demonstrates that the LLEWW embedded in trade easterlies can directly initiate TCs by creating cyclonic wind shears and forming the intertropical convergence zone. In addition to this direct effect, the LLEWW combined with the rotating Earth can boost additional updraft vapor over the high seasurface temperature region （factor 1）, facilitating a surfacetomidtroposphere moist layer （factor 2） and convective instability （factor 3） followed by diabatic processes. According to previous studies, the diabatic heating in a finite equatorial region also activates TCs （factor 4） on each side of the Equator with weak vertical shear （factor 5）. Factors 1–5 are favorable conditions for the initiation of severe TCs. Statistical analyses show that the earliest signal of sustained LLEWW not only leads the earliest signal of sustained tropical depression by 3 days but also explains a higher percentage of total variance.展开更多
The second-generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of the Beijing Climate Center （BCC_GODAS2.0） has been run daily in a pre-operational mode. It spans the period 1990 to the present day. The goal of this pa...The second-generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of the Beijing Climate Center （BCC_GODAS2.0） has been run daily in a pre-operational mode. It spans the period 1990 to the present day. The goal of this paper is to introduce the main components and to evaluate BCC_GODAS2.0 for the user community. BCC_GODAS2.0 consists of an observational data preprocess, ocean data quality control system, a three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） data assimilation, and global ocean circulation model [Modular Ocean Model 4 （MOM4）]. MOM4 is driven by six-hourly fluxes from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Satellite altimetry data, SST, and in-situ temperature and salinity data are assimilated in real time. The monthly results from the BCC_GODAS2.0 reanalysis are compared and assessed with observations for 1990-201 I. The climatology of the mixed layer depth of BCC_GODAS2.0 is generally in agreement with that of World Ocean Atlas 2001. The modeled sea level variations in the tropical Pacific are consistent with observations from satellite altimetry on interannual to decadal time scales. Performances in predicting variations in the SST using BCC_GODAS2.0 are evaluated. The standard deviation of the SST in BCC_GODAS2.0 agrees well with observations in the tropical Pacific. BCC_GODAS2.0 is able to capture the main features of E1 Nifio Modoki I and Modoki II, which have different impacts on rainfall in southern China. In addition, the relationships between the Indian Ocean and the two types of E1 Nino Modoki are also reproduced.展开更多
Tropical cyclone （TC） Nargis （2008） made landfall in Myanmar on 02 May 2008, bringing a storm surge, major flooding, and resulting in a significant death toll. TC Nargis （2008） displayed abnormal features, inclu...Tropical cyclone （TC） Nargis （2008） made landfall in Myanmar on 02 May 2008, bringing a storm surge, major flooding, and resulting in a significant death toll. TC Nargis （2008） displayed abnormal features, including rare eastward motion in its late stage, rapid intensification before landing. Using reanalysis data and a numerical model, we investigated how a low-latitude westerly wind modulated TC Nargis’ （2008） track and provided favorable atmospheric conditions for its rapid intensification. More importantly, we found a possible counterbalance effect of flows from the two hemispheres on the TC track in the Bay of Bengal. Our analysis indicates that a strong westerly wind burst across the Bay of Bengal, resulting in TC Nargis’ （2008） eastward movement after its recurvature. This sudden enhancement of westerly wind was mainly due to the rapidly intensified mid-level cross-equatorial flow. Our results show that a high-pressure system in the Southern Hemisphere induced this strong, mid-level, cross-equatorial flow. During the rapid intensification period of TC Nargis （2008）, this strong and broad westerly wind also transported a large amount of water vapor to TC Nargis （2008）. Sufficient water vapor gave rise to continuously high and increased mid-level relative humidity, which was favorable to TC Nargis’ （2008） intensification. Condensation of water vapor increased the energy supply, which eventuated the intensification of TC Nargis （2008） to a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.展开更多
Tropical cyclone （TC） genesis in the South China Sea （SCS） during 1979-2008 underwent a decadal variation around 1993. A total of 55 TCs formed in the SCS from May to September during 1994- 2008, about twice that ...Tropical cyclone （TC） genesis in the South China Sea （SCS） during 1979-2008 underwent a decadal variation around 1993. A total of 55 TCs formed in the SCS from May to September during 1994- 2008, about twice that during 1979-1993 （27）. During the TC peak season （July-September, JAS）, there were 43 TCs fi＇om 1994-2008, but only 17 during 1979-1993. For July in particular, 13 TCs formed from 1994-2008, but there were none during 1979-1993. The change in TC number is associated with changes of key environmental conditions in atmosphere and ocean. Compared to 1979-1993, the subtropical high was significantly weaker and was displaced more eastward during 1994-2008. In the former period, a stronger subtropical high induced downward flow, inhibiting TC formation. In the latter period, vertical wind shear and outgoing longwave radiation all weakened. Mid-level （850-500 hPa） humidity, and relative vorticity were higher. Sea surface temperature and upper layer heat content were also higher in the area. All these factors favor TC genesis during the latter period. The decadal change of TC genesis led to more landfalling TCs in Southern China during the period 1994-2008, which contributed to an abrupt increase in regional rainfall.展开更多
High-frequency oscillations, with periods of about 2 hours, are first identified by applying wavelet analysis to observed minutely wind speeds around the eye and eyewall of tropical cyclones（TCs）. Analysis of a mode...High-frequency oscillations, with periods of about 2 hours, are first identified by applying wavelet analysis to observed minutely wind speeds around the eye and eyewall of tropical cyclones（TCs）. Analysis of a model simulation of Typhoon Hagupit（2008） shows that the oscillations also occur in the TC intensity, vertical motion, convergence activity and air density around the eyewall. Sequences of oscillations in these variables follow a certain order.展开更多
The temporal variations in the frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) traversing the Taiwan and Hainan Islands (TH islands), were analyzed using a best-track TC dataset from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for the peri...The temporal variations in the frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) traversing the Taiwan and Hainan Islands (TH islands), were analyzed using a best-track TC dataset from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for the period 1945-2007. Results show that the oscillations were interannual and interdecadal on the timescales of 2-8 and 8-12 years, respectively. It is also shown that the number of TCs formed in the western North Pacific basin (WNP) and of those traversing the TH islands varied intraseasonally. These results also held for typhoons traversing the TH islands, although the oscillations were less apparent. This study identified interrelationships between the frequency of TCs making landfall on the TH islands and the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM), the South Asia summer monsoon (SASM), and the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM). The SCSSM significantly influenced the number of TCs traversing Hainan Island, but had little influence on the number of TCs traversing Taiwan Island. By contrast, the SASM influenced the numbers of TCs traversing both of the TH islands, shown by correlation coefficients of 0.41 for Taiwan Island and -0.25 for Hainan Island. In addition, the frequency of TC landfall on Taiwan Island increased during years of enhanced EASM, as indicated by a correlation coefficient of 0.4.展开更多
The modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the southern South China Sea （SSCS） by the El Nin o- Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is examined in October–December （OND）, when tropical cyclone （TC） activities are m...The modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the southern South China Sea （SSCS） by the El Nin o- Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is examined in October–December （OND）, when tropical cyclone （TC） activities are most active in this region. The results reveal that there were more TCs formed over the SSCS during La Nin a years and less TCs during El Nin o years. How different environmental factors （including low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity） contribute to this influence is investigated, using a genesis potential （GP） index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for El Nin o and La Nin a years separately, which could account for the changes of TC frequency over the SSCS in different ENSO phases. The degree of contribution by each factor is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. The results show that the mid-level relative humidity makes the largest contribution to the ENSO modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the SSCS. Although warmer sea surface temperatures （SSTs） and larger amount of evaporation from the ocean surface were observed over the SSCS during El Nin o years, anomalous descending motions due to the anomalous Walker circulations inhibited the upward transports of water vapor and led to less moisture contents in the middle troposphere, which suppressed TC formations.展开更多
This study examines the modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea （SCS） by the E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） Modoki during the boreal summer. Results reveal that there were more tropical c...This study examines the modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea （SCS） by the E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） Modoki during the boreal summer. Results reveal that there were more tropical cyclones （TCs） formed over the SCS during central Pacific warming years and less TC frequency during central Pacific cooling years. How different environmental factors （including low-level relative vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity） contribute to this influence is investigated, using a genesis potential （GP） index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for central Pacific warming and cooling years separately, which could account for the changes of TC frequency over the SCS in different ENSO Modoki phases. The degree of contribution by each factor is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. The results suggest that the vertical wind shear and low-level relative vorticity, which are associated with the ENSO Modold-induced anomalous circulations in Matsuno-Gill patterns, make the largest contributions to the ENSO Modoki modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS as implied by the GP index. These results highlight the important roles of dynamic factors in the modulation of TC fre-quency over the SCS by the ENSO Modold during the boreal summer.展开更多
This study examines the seasonal variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea (SCS) using a genesis potential (GP) index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. How different environmental factors (including l...This study examines the seasonal variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea (SCS) using a genesis potential (GP) index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. How different environmental factors (including low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity) contribute to these variations is investigated. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for the summer and winter monsoons separately. These composites replicate the observed seasonal variations of the observed frequency and location of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS. The degree of contribution by each factor in different regions is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. Over the northern SCS, potential intensity makes the largest contributions to the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis. Over the southern SCS, the low-level relative vorticity plays the primary role in the seasonal modulation of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency, and the vertical wind shear plays the secondary role. Thermodynamic factors play more important roles for the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis over the northern SCS, while dynamic factors are more important in the seasonal modulation of TC genesis frequency over the southern SCS.展开更多
Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones （TCs） over the western North Pacific （WNP） are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m （MW...Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones （TCs） over the western North Pacific （WNP） are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m （MWS10） from an ensemble of 15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS10 are similar in the WNP and South China Sea （SCS）; however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS （1.93 h） is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP （2.83 h）. The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations, and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit （2008）. The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.展开更多
This study, using laboratory experiments and scaling analysis, evaluates the influence of geothermal heating on global oceanic circulation. Upon a well-developed large-scale convective flow, an additional heat flux pe...This study, using laboratory experiments and scaling analysis, evaluates the influence of geothermal heating on global oceanic circulation. Upon a well-developed large-scale convective flow, an additional heat flux perturbation 5F/F is employed. The increments of flow and thermal properties, including eddy diffusivity K7, flow velocity Vand bottom temperature Tb, are found to be independent of the applied heat flux F. Together with the scaling analysis of convective flow at different configurations, where the flow is thermally driven in the relatively low or extremely high turbulent thermal convections or the horizontal convection, the variances of flow properties, 6KT/KTand 6V/V, are found to be close to 0.5% and 0.75% at 5F/F=2%. This means that the small heat flux perturbation plays a negligible role in the global convective flow. However, 6Tb/ATis found to be 1.5% at 8F/F=2%, which would have a significant effect in the local region. The results might provide a clue to understanding the influence of geothermal heating on global oceanic circulation. It is expected that geothermal heating will contribute less than 1% in turbulent mixing and volume flux to global oceanic circulation, so its influence can be negligible in this situation. However, when it comes to the local environment, the influence of geothermal heating cannot be ignored. For example, temperature increases of about 0.5℃ with geothermal heating would have a significant effect on the physical environments within the benthic boundary layer.展开更多
Shipboard radiosonde soundings are important for detecting and quantifying the multiscale variability of atmosphere-ocean interactions associated with mass exchanges.This study evaluated the accuracies of shipboard Gl...Shipboard radiosonde soundings are important for detecting and quantifying the multiscale variability of atmosphere-ocean interactions associated with mass exchanges.This study evaluated the accuracies of shipboard Global Positioning System(GPS)soundings in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and South China Sea through a simultaneous balloon-borne inter-comparison of different radiosonde types.Our results indicate that the temperature and relative humidity(RH)measurements of GPS-TanKong(GPS-TK)radiosonde(used at most stations before 2012)have larger biases than those of ChangFeng-06-A(CF-06-A)radiosonde(widely used in current observation)when compared to reference data from Vaisala RS92-SGP radiosonde,with a warm bias of 5℃and dry bias of 10%during daytimes,and a cooling bias of-0.8℃and a moist bias of 6%during nighttime.These systematic biases are primarily attributed to the radiation effects and altitude deviation.An empirical correction algorithm was developed to retrieve the atmospheric temperature and RH profiles.The corrected profiles agree well with that of RS92-SGP,except for uncertainties of CF-06-A in the stratosphere.These correction algorithms were applied to the GPS-TK historical sounding records,reducing biases in the corrected temperature and RH profiles when compared to radio occultation data.The correction of GPS-TK historical records illustrated an improvement in capturing the marine atmospheric structure,with more accurate atmospheric boundary layer height,convective available potential energy,and convective inhibition in the tropical ocean.This study contributes significantly to improving the quality of GPS radiosonde soundings and promotes the sharing of observation in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and South China Sea.展开更多
The South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM)onset is characterized by an apparent seasonal conversion of circulation and convection.Accordingly,various indices have been introduced to identify the SCSSM onset date.Howeve...The South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM)onset is characterized by an apparent seasonal conversion of circulation and convection.Accordingly,various indices have been introduced to identify the SCSSM onset date.However,the onset dates as determined by various indices can be very inconsistent.It not only limits the determination of onset dates but also misleads the assessment of prediction skills.In 2021,the onset time as identified by the circulation criteria was 20 May,which is 12 days earlier than that deduced by also considering the convection criteria.The present study mainly ascribes such circulation-convection inconsistency to the activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).The convection of TC“Yaas”(2021)acted as an upper-level diabatic heat source to the north of the SCS,facilitating the circulation transition.Afterward,TC“Choi-wan”(2021)over the western Pacific aided the westerlies to persist at lower levels while simultaneously suppressing moist convection over the SCS.Accurate predictions using the ECMWF S2S forecast system were obtained only after the MJO formation.The skillful prediction of the MJO during late spring may provide an opportunity to accurately predict the establishment of the SCSSM several weeks in advance.展开更多
Based on the air-sea interface heat fluxes and related meteorological variables datasets recently released by Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes(OA Flux) Project of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,as well as the...Based on the air-sea interface heat fluxes and related meteorological variables datasets recently released by Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes(OA Flux) Project of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,as well as the outgoing longwave radiation and surface wind datasets from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,the seasonal dependence of local air-sea interaction over the tropical western Pacific warm pool(referred to the region(1o-6oN,144o-154oE)) is revealed and the probable impacts of remote forcing on the air-sea interaction are examined.The results indicated the dominance of oceanic forcing with the significant impact of ENSO in March and that of atmospheric feedback without notable influence of remote forcing in June.While the interannual variability of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) is larger than that of SSTA tendency when oceanic forcing is dominant,the opposite is true when atmospheric feedback is dominant.The magnitude of the oceanic forcing of the atmosphere tends to decrease in March with the occurrence of ENSO,though ENSO has little influence on the atmospheric feedback to the ocean in June.The local air-sea interaction is substantially the same before and after the removal of the effect of Indian Oceanic Dipole.The reduction of shortwave radiation fluxes into the western Pacific warm pool,due to the enhanced overlaying convection in March associated with ENSO,leads to the decline of SST tendency that will weaken the oceanic forcing of the atmosphere.展开更多
To understand the impacts of large-scale circulation during the evolution of E1 Nifio cycle on tropical cyclones （TC） is important and useful for TC forecast. Based on best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning ...To understand the impacts of large-scale circulation during the evolution of E1 Nifio cycle on tropical cyclones （TC） is important and useful for TC forecast. Based on best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction for the period 1975- 2014, we investigated the influences of two types of E1 Nifio, the eastern Pacific E1 Nifio （EP-E1 Nifio） and central Pacific E1 Nifio （CP-E1 Nifio）, on global TC genesis. We also examined how various environmental factors contribute to these influences using a modified genesis potential index （MGPI）. The composites reproduced for two types of E1 Nifio, from their developing to decaying phases, were able to qualitatively replicate observed cyclogenesis in several basins except for the Arabian Sea. Certain factors of MGPI with more influence than others in various regions are identified. Over the western North Pacific, five variables were all important in the two E1Nifio types during developing summer （July-August-September） and fall （October- November-December）, and decaying spring （April-May-June） and summer. In the eastern Pacific, vertical shear and relative vorticity are the crucial factors for the two types of El Nifio during developing and decaying summers. In the Atlantic, vertical shear, potential intensity and relative humidity are important for the opposite variation of EP- and CP-EI Nifios during decaying summers. In the Southern Hemisphere, the five variables have varying contributions to TC genesis variation during peak season （January-February-March） for the two types of E1 Nifio. In the Bay of Bengal, relative vorticity, humidity and omega may be responsible for clearly reduced TC genesis during developing fall for the two types and slightly suppressed TC cyclogenesis during EP-E1 Nifio decaying spring. In the Arabian Sea, the EP-E1 Nifio generates a slightly positive anomaly of TC genesis during developing falls and decaying springs, but the MGPI failed to capture this variation.展开更多
This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over th...This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.展开更多
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No:42105025,42075189,42275036,and 42430610)the National Key R&D Program of China under Grant 2021YFA0718000+3 种基金the China Meteorological Administration Youth Innovation Team(CMA2023QN15)China Meteorological Administration Key Innovation Team(CMA2024ZD07)the development fund of South China Sea Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(SCSIO202203 and SCSIO202208)the Open Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography(South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences)(LTO2110)。
文摘The increase in frequency and intensity of Extreme High-temperature Events(EHEs)over Central-Eastern China(CEC)in recent decades has severely impacted social development and livelihoods.Using observation and reanalysis datasets,this study explores the effect of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream(EAJ)on the CEC EHEs for the summers spanning 1979–2020.Considering its general relative location to the right side of the upper-level jet stream exit region,CEC would theoretically suffer more EHEs with a stronger and northwardly-shifted EAJ in summer due to the likelihood of abnormal subsidence induced by the EAJ.However,such an EAJ–EHE connection has been unstable over the past four decades but has displayed an evident interdecadal change.Before the late 1990s,the interannual variation of the EAJ was manifested mainly by its meridional displacement in the northeastern part of East Asia;thus,the atmospheric responses were essentially located to the east of CEC,exerting less of an influence on the CEC EHEs.However,since the late 1990s,the EAJ variation has featured an intensity change in its center over the northwest portion of the CEC,which has resulted in a westward shift in atmospheric responses to cover the CEC region.Therefore,the EAJ could potentially affect the summer CEC EHEs during 2000–21.Our findings offer support for an in-depth understanding of the formation mechanisms of extreme weather/climate events of this nature and thus provide a scientific reference for seasonal climate predictions.
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0600601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41605027, 41721004, 41530530 and 41731173)+1 种基金the Leading Talents of Guangdong Province Program, the Pioneer Hundred Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘This study investigates why an extreme hot midsummer occurred in Central and South China(CSC) during 2017. It is shown that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) was abnormally intensified and westward-extending,resulting in anomalous high pressure and consequent extreme heat over CSC. The abnormal WNPSH was favored by the warming of the western tropical Pacific(WTP), which was unrelated to ENSO and manifested its own individual effect.The WTP warming enhanced the convection in-situ and led to anomalous high pressure over CSC via a local meridional circulation. The influence of the WTP was confirmed by CAM4 model experiments. A comparison between the 2017 midsummer and 2010 midsummer(with a stronger WNPSH but weaker extreme heat) indicated that the influence of the WNPSH on extreme heat can be modulated by the associated precipitation in the northwestern flank.The role of the WTP was verified by regression analyses on the interannual variation of the WTP sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA). On the other hand, the WTP has undergone prominent warming during the past few decades, resulting from decadal to long-term changes and favoring extreme warm conditions. Through a mechanism similar to the interannual variation, the decadal to long-term changes have reinforced the influence of WTP warming on the temperature over CSC,contributing to the more frequent hot midsummers recently. It is estimated that more than 50% of the temperature anomaly over CSC in the 2017 midsummer was due to the WTP warming, and 40% was related to the decadal to long-term changes of the WTP SSTA.
基金supported by The National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40976011)the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean(Grant No.201105018)the National Key Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430300)
文摘Impacts of EI Nino Modoki （ENM）, La Nina Modoki （LNM）, canonical EI Nifio （CEN） and canonical La Nifia （CLN） on tropical cyclones （TCs） that made landfall over China's Mainland during 1951-2011 are analysed using best-track data from China, the USA and Japan. Relative to cold phase years （LNM and CLN）, landfalling TCs in warm years （ENM and CEN） have a farther east genesis location, as well as longer track lengths and durations, both in total and before landfall. ENM demonstrates the highest landfall frequency, most northerly mean landfall position, and shortest after-landfall sustainability （track length and duration）, which indicate a more frequent and extensive coverage of China's Mainland by TCs, but with shorter after-landfall influence. CEN has low landfall frequency and the most southerly mean landfall location. LNM has the most westerly genesis location, being significantly farther west than the 1951-2011 average and leading to short mean track lengths and durations both in total or before landfall, all of which are significantly shorter than the 1951-2011 average. Variations in the low-level wind anomaly, vertical wind shear, mid-level relative humidity, steering flow, the monsoon trough and the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） can to some extent account for the features of frequency, location, track length and duration of landfalling TCs. Since ENSO Modoki is expected to become more frequent in the near future, the results for ENSO Modoki presented in this paper are of particular significance.
基金sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China (also called 973 Program, Grant Nos 2011CB403504 and 2010CB950400)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos U0833602, U0733002 and 40906010)+2 种基金Hong Kong Croucher Foundation (Grant No 9220055)City University of Hong Kong (Strategic Research Grant No 7002717)Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics (LED), Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No LED0804)
文摘Tropical cyclone （TC） genesis over the South China Sea （SCS） during 1965–2004 was analyzed. The locations of TC genesis display evident seasonal changes, with the mean position of formation situated north of 15 °N in summer （June–July–August） and south of 15 °N in autumn （September–October–November）. The TC genesis in summer underwent dramatic interdecadal variations, with more and less TC frequency during 1965–1974/1995–2004 and 1979–1993, respectively. In contrast, a significant interannual variation of TC genesis with a period of ～4 years was observed in autumn. This study investigated the relationship of SCS TC genesis to the East Asian jet stream （EAJS） and the western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH） on an interdecadal time scale. Analysis and comparison of the impacts of the EAJS and the WNPSH on vertical wind shear changes indicate that changes in the WNPSH and EAJS intensity rather than EAJS meridional location are responsible for changes in TC genesis on an interdecadal time scale. Corresponding to a weaker EAJS, anomalous Rossby wave energy at upper levels displays equatorward propagation at midlatitudes and poleward propagation in the subtropics. This induces anomalous convergence and divergence of wave activity fluxes in East Asia around 30 °N and the SCS, respectively. The anomalous divergence of wave activity fluxes reduces easterlies at upper levels over the SCS, which is favorable to TC genesis.
基金sponsored by the National Key Basic Research Project of China (2009CB421404)the key project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 40730951)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 40575021)
文摘Global climate models predict that the increasing Amazoniandeforestation rates cause rising tempera tures （increases of 1.8℃ to 8℃ under different conditions） and Amazonian drying over the 21st century. Observations in the 20th century also show that over the warmer continent and the nearby western South At lantic Ocean, the lowerlayer equatorial westerly wind （LLEWW） strengthens with the initiation of tropical cyclones （TCs）. The warmercontinentrelated LLEWW can result from the Coriolisforceinduced deflection of the crossequatorial flow （similar to the wellknown heatisland effect on sea breeze） driven by the enhanced landsea contrast between the warmer urbanized continents and relatively cold oceans. This study focuses on the processes relating the warmercontinentrelated LLEWW to the TC initiation and demonstrates that the LLEWW embedded in trade easterlies can directly initiate TCs by creating cyclonic wind shears and forming the intertropical convergence zone. In addition to this direct effect, the LLEWW combined with the rotating Earth can boost additional updraft vapor over the high seasurface temperature region （factor 1）, facilitating a surfacetomidtroposphere moist layer （factor 2） and convective instability （factor 3） followed by diabatic processes. According to previous studies, the diabatic heating in a finite equatorial region also activates TCs （factor 4） on each side of the Equator with weak vertical shear （factor 5）. Factors 1–5 are favorable conditions for the initiation of severe TCs. Statistical analyses show that the earliest signal of sustained LLEWW not only leads the earliest signal of sustained tropical depression by 3 days but also explains a higher percentage of total variance.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41306005)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955903)the CAS/SAFEA International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams
文摘The second-generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of the Beijing Climate Center （BCC_GODAS2.0） has been run daily in a pre-operational mode. It spans the period 1990 to the present day. The goal of this paper is to introduce the main components and to evaluate BCC_GODAS2.0 for the user community. BCC_GODAS2.0 consists of an observational data preprocess, ocean data quality control system, a three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） data assimilation, and global ocean circulation model [Modular Ocean Model 4 （MOM4）]. MOM4 is driven by six-hourly fluxes from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Satellite altimetry data, SST, and in-situ temperature and salinity data are assimilated in real time. The monthly results from the BCC_GODAS2.0 reanalysis are compared and assessed with observations for 1990-201 I. The climatology of the mixed layer depth of BCC_GODAS2.0 is generally in agreement with that of World Ocean Atlas 2001. The modeled sea level variations in the tropical Pacific are consistent with observations from satellite altimetry on interannual to decadal time scales. Performances in predicting variations in the SST using BCC_GODAS2.0 are evaluated. The standard deviation of the SST in BCC_GODAS2.0 agrees well with observations in the tropical Pacific. BCC_GODAS2.0 is able to capture the main features of E1 Nifio Modoki I and Modoki II, which have different impacts on rainfall in southern China. In addition, the relationships between the Indian Ocean and the two types of E1 Nino Modoki are also reproduced.
基金supportedby a grant from the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China(973Program)(No2011CB403500)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(NoU0733002)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China(No8351030101000002)
文摘Tropical cyclone （TC） Nargis （2008） made landfall in Myanmar on 02 May 2008, bringing a storm surge, major flooding, and resulting in a significant death toll. TC Nargis （2008） displayed abnormal features, including rare eastward motion in its late stage, rapid intensification before landing. Using reanalysis data and a numerical model, we investigated how a low-latitude westerly wind modulated TC Nargis’ （2008） track and provided favorable atmospheric conditions for its rapid intensification. More importantly, we found a possible counterbalance effect of flows from the two hemispheres on the TC track in the Bay of Bengal. Our analysis indicates that a strong westerly wind burst across the Bay of Bengal, resulting in TC Nargis’ （2008） eastward movement after its recurvature. This sudden enhancement of westerly wind was mainly due to the rapidly intensified mid-level cross-equatorial flow. Our results show that a high-pressure system in the Southern Hemisphere induced this strong, mid-level, cross-equatorial flow. During the rapid intensification period of TC Nargis （2008）, this strong and broad westerly wind also transported a large amount of water vapor to TC Nargis （2008）. Sufficient water vapor gave rise to continuously high and increased mid-level relative humidity, which was favorable to TC Nargis’ （2008） intensification. Condensation of water vapor increased the energy supply, which eventuated the intensification of TC Nargis （2008） to a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)(No.2011CB403500)the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos. KZCX2-YW-Q11-02, XDA05090404)+1 种基金the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2010CB950302)the Qianren and Changjiang Scholar Projects, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)and SOEST-8711 & IPRC-901
文摘Tropical cyclone （TC） genesis in the South China Sea （SCS） during 1979-2008 underwent a decadal variation around 1993. A total of 55 TCs formed in the SCS from May to September during 1994- 2008, about twice that during 1979-1993 （27）. During the TC peak season （July-September, JAS）, there were 43 TCs fi＇om 1994-2008, but only 17 during 1979-1993. For July in particular, 13 TCs formed from 1994-2008, but there were none during 1979-1993. The change in TC number is associated with changes of key environmental conditions in atmosphere and ocean. Compared to 1979-1993, the subtropical high was significantly weaker and was displaced more eastward during 1994-2008. In the former period, a stronger subtropical high induced downward flow, inhibiting TC formation. In the latter period, vertical wind shear and outgoing longwave radiation all weakened. Mid-level （850-500 hPa） humidity, and relative vorticity were higher. Sea surface temperature and upper layer heat content were also higher in the area. All these factors favor TC genesis during the latter period. The decadal change of TC genesis led to more landfalling TCs in Southern China during the period 1994-2008, which contributed to an abrupt increase in regional rainfall.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41375050, 41405048 and 41205032)the China National Basic Research Program (Grant Nos. 2011CB403500 and 2014CB953904)
文摘High-frequency oscillations, with periods of about 2 hours, are first identified by applying wavelet analysis to observed minutely wind speeds around the eye and eyewall of tropical cyclones（TCs）. Analysis of a model simulation of Typhoon Hagupit（2008） shows that the oscillations also occur in the TC intensity, vertical motion, convergence activity and air density around the eyewall. Sequences of oscillations in these variables follow a certain order.
基金Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-Q11-02)
文摘The temporal variations in the frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) traversing the Taiwan and Hainan Islands (TH islands), were analyzed using a best-track TC dataset from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for the period 1945-2007. Results show that the oscillations were interannual and interdecadal on the timescales of 2-8 and 8-12 years, respectively. It is also shown that the number of TCs formed in the western North Pacific basin (WNP) and of those traversing the TH islands varied intraseasonally. These results also held for typhoons traversing the TH islands, although the oscillations were less apparent. This study identified interrelationships between the frequency of TCs making landfall on the TH islands and the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM), the South Asia summer monsoon (SASM), and the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM). The SCSSM significantly influenced the number of TCs traversing Hainan Island, but had little influence on the number of TCs traversing Taiwan Island. By contrast, the SASM influenced the numbers of TCs traversing both of the TH islands, shown by correlation coefficients of 0.41 for Taiwan Island and -0.25 for Hainan Island. In addition, the frequency of TC landfall on Taiwan Island increased during years of enhanced EASM, as indicated by a correlation coefficient of 0.4.
基金The National Basic Research Program of China under contract No. 2011CB403500the fund from the State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environmental Dynamics (Second Institute of Oceanography) under contract No. SOED1108+1 种基金the fund from the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (South China Sea Institute of Oceanology) under contract No. LED1002the tropical marine meteorology fund from the Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under contract No. 111gpy13
文摘The modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the southern South China Sea （SSCS） by the El Nin o- Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is examined in October–December （OND）, when tropical cyclone （TC） activities are most active in this region. The results reveal that there were more TCs formed over the SSCS during La Nin a years and less TCs during El Nin o years. How different environmental factors （including low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity） contribute to this influence is investigated, using a genesis potential （GP） index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for El Nin o and La Nin a years separately, which could account for the changes of TC frequency over the SSCS in different ENSO phases. The degree of contribution by each factor is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. The results show that the mid-level relative humidity makes the largest contribution to the ENSO modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the SSCS. Although warmer sea surface temperatures （SSTs） and larger amount of evaporation from the ocean surface were observed over the SSCS during El Nin o years, anomalous descending motions due to the anomalous Walker circulations inhibited the upward transports of water vapor and led to less moisture contents in the middle troposphere, which suppressed TC formations.
基金funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences with Grant No.XDA11010000the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.41205026)+6 种基金the National Basic Research Program of China (2011CB403500)the Innovation Group Program of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (LTOZZ1201)Dr.Lei Wang was also sponsored by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (SQ201208)the foundation for returned scholars of Ministry of Education of Chinathe specialized research fund for the doctoral program of Higher Education for Youthsthe foundation of Guangdong Educational Committee for Youths (2012 LYM_0008)the open fund of the Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KLOCAW1309)
文摘This study examines the modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea （SCS） by the E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） Modoki during the boreal summer. Results reveal that there were more tropical cyclones （TCs） formed over the SCS during central Pacific warming years and less TC frequency during central Pacific cooling years. How different environmental factors （including low-level relative vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity） contribute to this influence is investigated, using a genesis potential （GP） index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for central Pacific warming and cooling years separately, which could account for the changes of TC frequency over the SCS in different ENSO Modoki phases. The degree of contribution by each factor is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. The results suggest that the vertical wind shear and low-level relative vorticity, which are associated with the ENSO Modold-induced anomalous circulations in Matsuno-Gill patterns, make the largest contributions to the ENSO Modoki modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS as implied by the GP index. These results highlight the important roles of dynamic factors in the modulation of TC fre-quency over the SCS by the ENSO Modold during the boreal summer.
基金funded by the tropical marine meteorology fund from the Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology CMAthe National Basic Research Program of China(2011CB403500)+2 种基金SOED1108LED1002the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No.11lgpy13)
文摘This study examines the seasonal variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea (SCS) using a genesis potential (GP) index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. How different environmental factors (including low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity) contribute to these variations is investigated. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for the summer and winter monsoons separately. These composites replicate the observed seasonal variations of the observed frequency and location of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS. The degree of contribution by each factor in different regions is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. Over the northern SCS, potential intensity makes the largest contributions to the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis. Over the southern SCS, the low-level relative vorticity plays the primary role in the seasonal modulation of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency, and the vertical wind shear plays the secondary role. Thermodynamic factors play more important roles for the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis over the northern SCS, while dynamic factors are more important in the seasonal modulation of TC genesis frequency over the southern SCS.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41405048, 41675043, 41375050, 41205032 and 41775094)Independent Research Project Program of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography (Grant No. LTOZZ1603)
文摘Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones （TCs） over the western North Pacific （WNP） are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m （MWS10） from an ensemble of 15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS10 are similar in the WNP and South China Sea （SCS）; however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS （1.93 h） is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP （2.83 h）. The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations, and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit （2008）. The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation(NSF)of China under contract Nos 41176027 and 11072253the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.XDA11030302the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography(LTO)grant,South China Sea Institute of Oceanography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,under contract No.LTOZZ1304
文摘This study, using laboratory experiments and scaling analysis, evaluates the influence of geothermal heating on global oceanic circulation. Upon a well-developed large-scale convective flow, an additional heat flux perturbation 5F/F is employed. The increments of flow and thermal properties, including eddy diffusivity K7, flow velocity Vand bottom temperature Tb, are found to be independent of the applied heat flux F. Together with the scaling analysis of convective flow at different configurations, where the flow is thermally driven in the relatively low or extremely high turbulent thermal convections or the horizontal convection, the variances of flow properties, 6KT/KTand 6V/V, are found to be close to 0.5% and 0.75% at 5F/F=2%. This means that the small heat flux perturbation plays a negligible role in the global convective flow. However, 6Tb/ATis found to be 1.5% at 8F/F=2%, which would have a significant effect in the local region. The results might provide a clue to understanding the influence of geothermal heating on global oceanic circulation. It is expected that geothermal heating will contribute less than 1% in turbulent mixing and volume flux to global oceanic circulation, so its influence can be negligible in this situation. However, when it comes to the local environment, the influence of geothermal heating cannot be ignored. For example, temperature increases of about 0.5℃ with geothermal heating would have a significant effect on the physical environments within the benthic boundary layer.
基金The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program under contract No.2019QZKK0102-02the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42230402,92158204,42176026,42076201,41049903,41149908,41249906,41249907,and 41249910+2 种基金the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation under contract No.2022A1515240069the Marine Economic Development Special Program of Guangdong Province(Six Major Marine Industries):Research and Demonstration of Critical Technologies for Comprehensive Prevention and Control of Natural Disaster in Offshore Wind Farms,China under contract No.29[2023]the Fund of Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Physical and Geological Processes under contract No.KLMPG-22-02.
文摘Shipboard radiosonde soundings are important for detecting and quantifying the multiscale variability of atmosphere-ocean interactions associated with mass exchanges.This study evaluated the accuracies of shipboard Global Positioning System(GPS)soundings in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and South China Sea through a simultaneous balloon-borne inter-comparison of different radiosonde types.Our results indicate that the temperature and relative humidity(RH)measurements of GPS-TanKong(GPS-TK)radiosonde(used at most stations before 2012)have larger biases than those of ChangFeng-06-A(CF-06-A)radiosonde(widely used in current observation)when compared to reference data from Vaisala RS92-SGP radiosonde,with a warm bias of 5℃and dry bias of 10%during daytimes,and a cooling bias of-0.8℃and a moist bias of 6%during nighttime.These systematic biases are primarily attributed to the radiation effects and altitude deviation.An empirical correction algorithm was developed to retrieve the atmospheric temperature and RH profiles.The corrected profiles agree well with that of RS92-SGP,except for uncertainties of CF-06-A in the stratosphere.These correction algorithms were applied to the GPS-TK historical sounding records,reducing biases in the corrected temperature and RH profiles when compared to radio occultation data.The correction of GPS-TK historical records illustrated an improvement in capturing the marine atmospheric structure,with more accurate atmospheric boundary layer height,convective available potential energy,and convective inhibition in the tropical ocean.This study contributes significantly to improving the quality of GPS radiosonde soundings and promotes the sharing of observation in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and South China Sea.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42005011, 41830969)the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of CAMS (Grant Nos. 2021Z004)supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘The South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM)onset is characterized by an apparent seasonal conversion of circulation and convection.Accordingly,various indices have been introduced to identify the SCSSM onset date.However,the onset dates as determined by various indices can be very inconsistent.It not only limits the determination of onset dates but also misleads the assessment of prediction skills.In 2021,the onset time as identified by the circulation criteria was 20 May,which is 12 days earlier than that deduced by also considering the convection criteria.The present study mainly ascribes such circulation-convection inconsistency to the activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)modulated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).The convection of TC“Yaas”(2021)acted as an upper-level diabatic heat source to the north of the SCS,facilitating the circulation transition.Afterward,TC“Choi-wan”(2021)over the western Pacific aided the westerlies to persist at lower levels while simultaneously suppressing moist convection over the SCS.Accurate predictions using the ECMWF S2S forecast system were obtained only after the MJO formation.The skillful prediction of the MJO during late spring may provide an opportunity to accurately predict the establishment of the SCSSM several weeks in advance.
基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(WK2080000037)Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province(1208085QD75)Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves from Chinese Academy of Sciences(KLOCAW1204)
文摘Based on the air-sea interface heat fluxes and related meteorological variables datasets recently released by Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes(OA Flux) Project of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,as well as the outgoing longwave radiation and surface wind datasets from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,the seasonal dependence of local air-sea interaction over the tropical western Pacific warm pool(referred to the region(1o-6oN,144o-154oE)) is revealed and the probable impacts of remote forcing on the air-sea interaction are examined.The results indicated the dominance of oceanic forcing with the significant impact of ENSO in March and that of atmospheric feedback without notable influence of remote forcing in June.While the interannual variability of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) is larger than that of SSTA tendency when oceanic forcing is dominant,the opposite is true when atmospheric feedback is dominant.The magnitude of the oceanic forcing of the atmosphere tends to decrease in March with the occurrence of ENSO,though ENSO has little influence on the atmospheric feedback to the ocean in June.The local air-sea interaction is substantially the same before and after the removal of the effect of Indian Oceanic Dipole.The reduction of shortwave radiation fluxes into the western Pacific warm pool,due to the enhanced overlaying convection in March associated with ENSO,leads to the decline of SST tendency that will weaken the oceanic forcing of the atmosphere.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973Program)(No.2012CB417402)the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.LTO1510)+3 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA11010102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41106018)the Funds for Creative Research Groups of China(No.41421005)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(No.U1406401)
文摘To understand the impacts of large-scale circulation during the evolution of E1 Nifio cycle on tropical cyclones （TC） is important and useful for TC forecast. Based on best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction for the period 1975- 2014, we investigated the influences of two types of E1 Nifio, the eastern Pacific E1 Nifio （EP-E1 Nifio） and central Pacific E1 Nifio （CP-E1 Nifio）, on global TC genesis. We also examined how various environmental factors contribute to these influences using a modified genesis potential index （MGPI）. The composites reproduced for two types of E1 Nifio, from their developing to decaying phases, were able to qualitatively replicate observed cyclogenesis in several basins except for the Arabian Sea. Certain factors of MGPI with more influence than others in various regions are identified. Over the western North Pacific, five variables were all important in the two E1Nifio types during developing summer （July-August-September） and fall （October- November-December）, and decaying spring （April-May-June） and summer. In the eastern Pacific, vertical shear and relative vorticity are the crucial factors for the two types of El Nifio during developing and decaying summers. In the Atlantic, vertical shear, potential intensity and relative humidity are important for the opposite variation of EP- and CP-EI Nifios during decaying summers. In the Southern Hemisphere, the five variables have varying contributions to TC genesis variation during peak season （January-February-March） for the two types of E1 Nifio. In the Bay of Bengal, relative vorticity, humidity and omega may be responsible for clearly reduced TC genesis during developing fall for the two types and slightly suppressed TC cyclogenesis during EP-E1 Nifio decaying spring. In the Arabian Sea, the EP-E1 Nifio generates a slightly positive anomaly of TC genesis during developing falls and decaying springs, but the MGPI failed to capture this variation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42288101)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(2019QZKK010201-02)+4 种基金GuangDong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2022A1515010945)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA20060503)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.92158204,42176026,42005035,41906181)Lei YANG is also supported by Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province(2022B1212050003)Special fund of South China Sea Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(SCSIO2023QY01).
文摘This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.
