The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain....The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming.展开更多
The year 2024 marked the 40th anniversary of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences(AAS),as well as the centenary of the Chinese Meteorological Society(CMS).The inaugural issue of AAS was published in 1984,initially being s...The year 2024 marked the 40th anniversary of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences(AAS),as well as the centenary of the Chinese Meteorological Society(CMS).The inaugural issue of AAS was published in 1984,initially being sponsored primarily by Chinese National Committee for the International Association of Meteorological and Atmospheric Sciences(IAMAS)and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.In 2006,Springer became AAS’s international publisher.Then,in 2015,the CMS joined in sponsoring AAS,and in the same year,AAS also became an affiliated journal of the IAMAS.These milestone events helped broaden the reach of AAS,culminating in the journal establishing itself as a truly international journal supporting the advancement of the atmospheric sciences.展开更多
Ocean reanalysis data,compared to traditional observational data,possess stronger continuity and higher data accuracy.The globally high-resolution ice-ocean coupled reanalysis product China Ocean ReAnalysis,Version 2....Ocean reanalysis data,compared to traditional observational data,possess stronger continuity and higher data accuracy.The globally high-resolution ice-ocean coupled reanalysis product China Ocean ReAnalysis,Version 2.0(CORA v2.0),independently developed by the National Marine Information Center,has attracted considerable attention since its release in 2020.This study selected six representative points of sound velocity profiles in different global ocean regions and conducted comparative analysis between the 2014 momentary data from CORA v2.0 and Argo data.Additionally,the monthly average data of CORA v2.0 in 2013 were compared and studied against General Digital Environmental Model(GDEM)and World Ocean Atlas(WOA)data.Metrics such as Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Error(ME)were introduced to evaluate the differences between datasets.The result reveals that,in a comparison of single moment data,the sound velocity profiles of CORA v2.0 data and Argo data exhibit high consistency,with ME generally within 2 m/s.Regarding a comparison of monthly average data,the consistency between CORA v2.0 data and WOA data is higher,while the error relative to GDEM data is relatively larger,but their RMSE and ME exhibit high similarity in temporal trends.Based on the 2014 data of CORA v2.0,the temporal and spatial evolutionary laws of global seawater sound velocity profiles and sound speed fields were analyzed.On the time scale,the variation of seawater sound speed is mainly influenced by seasons,with significant differences between winter and summer seasons.On the daily scale,there are certain differences in sound velocity profiles mainly in the early morning and afternoon.On the spatial scale,analysis was conducted from both horizontal and vertical perspectives.The distribution of sound speed exhibits evident regularity with latitude,with shallow seawater sound speed being greatly influenced by external factors while deep seawater is relatively stable.Using the Range-dependent Acoustic Model for Geoacoustics(RAMgeo)model to solve the underwater acoustic field at three specific points,the characteristic changes of sound velocity profiles at different times of the day and their impact on under water sound propagation losses were obtained.This paper provides valuable information for the application of CORA v2.0 data products.展开更多
Internal solitary waves(ISWs)have considerable energy to drive the mixing of water masses in the Sulu Sea.The propagation speed is one of the critical parameters in quantifying the energy budget of the ISWs.We collect...Internal solitary waves(ISWs)have considerable energy to drive the mixing of water masses in the Sulu Sea.The propagation speed is one of the critical parameters in quantifying the energy budget of the ISWs.We collected 1354 groups of ISWs’speeds from tandem satellite remote sensing images with temporal intervals shorter than 25 min and analyzed their spatial and multi-scale temporal variations in the Sulu Sea.We found that water depth plays an important role in modulating the spatial variation of wave speeds,which increase exponentially with water depth with a power of 0.26.Tidal currents,ocean stratification,background circulation,and climate affect the temporal variations of wave speeds from days to months or years.The fortnightly spring/neap tidal currents cause daily variations of wave speeds up to 40%by modulating the ISW amplitudes.In addition to the well-accepted results that monthly variations of wave speeds are related to density stratification,we found that enhanced stratification increases wave speeds,and the background circulation leads to a maximum decrease of 0.27 m/s in the linear counterparts of wave speed.Moreover,the averaged wave speed collected in October is lower than the corresponding linear one possibly due to some unknown dynamical processes or underestimation of background current.As for the interannual variations,we show that wave speed increases in La Niña years and decreases in El Niño years as a result of the climatic modulation on the depth of the maximum value of buoyancy frequency.展开更多
Seasonal variations of rainfall microphysics in East China are investigated using data from the observations of a twodimensional video disdrometer and a vertically pointing micro rain radar. The precipitation and rain...Seasonal variations of rainfall microphysics in East China are investigated using data from the observations of a twodimensional video disdrometer and a vertically pointing micro rain radar. The precipitation and rain drop size distribution(DSD) characteristics are revealed for different rain types and seasons. Summer rainfall is dominated by convective rain,while during the other seasons the contribution of stratiform rain to rainfall amount is equal to or even larger than that of convective rain. The mean mass-weighted diameter versus the generalized intercept parameter pairs of convective rain are plotted roughly around the "maritime" cluster, indicating a maritime nature of convective precipitation throughout the year in East China. The localized rainfall estimators, i.e., rainfall kinetic energy–rain rate, shape–slope, and radar reflectivity–rain rate relations are further derived. DSD variability is believed to be a major source of diversity of the aforementioned derived estimators. These newly derived relations would certainly improve the accuracy of rainfall kinetic energy estimation, DSD retrieval, and quantitative precipitation estimation in this specific region.展开更多
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis （TMPA） and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （NOAA） Climate Prediction Center （CPC） morphing technique （CMO...The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis （TMPA） and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （NOAA） Climate Prediction Center （CPC） morphing technique （CMORPH） are two important multi-satellite precipitation products in TRMM-era and perform important functions in GPM-era. Both TMPA and CMORPH systems simultaneously upgraded their retrieval algorithms and released their latest version of precipitation data in 2013. In this study, the latest TMPA and CMORPH products （i.e., Version-7 real-time TMPA （T-rt） and gauge-adjusted TMPA （T-adj）, and Version- 1.0 real-time CMORPH （C-rt） and Version-l.0 gauge-adjusted CMORPH （C-adj）） are evaluated and intercompared by using independent rain gauge observations for a 12-year （2000--2011） period over two typical basins in China with different geographical and climate conditions. Results indicate that all TMPA and CMORPH products tend to overestimate precipitation for the high-latitude semiarid Laoha River Basin and underestimate it for the low-latitude humid Mishui Basin. Overall, the satellite precipitation products exhibit superior performance over Mishui Basin than that over Laoha River Basin. The C-adj presents the best performance over the high-latitude Laoha River Basin, whereas T-adj showed the best performance over the low-latitude Mishui Basin. The two gauge-adjusted products demonstrate potential in water resource management. However, the accuracy of two real-time satellite precipitation products demonstrates large variability in the two validation basins. The C-rt reaches a similar accuracy level with the gauge-adjusted satellite precipitation products in the high-latitude Laoha River Basin, and T-rt performs well in the low-latitude Mishui Basin. The study also reveals that all satellite precipitation products obviously overestimate light rain amounts and events over Laoha River Basin, whereas they underestimate the amount and events over Mishui Basin. The findings of the precision characteristics associated with the latest TMPA and CMORPH precipitation products at different basins will offer satellite pre- cipitation users an enhanced understanding of the applicability of the latest TMPA and CMORPH for water resource management, hydrologic process simulation, and hydrometeorological disaster prediction in other similar regions in China. The findings will also be useful for IMERG algorithm development and update in GPM-era.展开更多
The multi-scale weather systems associated with a mei-yu front and the corresponding heavy precipitation during a particular heavy rainfall event that occurred on 4 5 July 2003 in east China were successfully simulate...The multi-scale weather systems associated with a mei-yu front and the corresponding heavy precipitation during a particular heavy rainfall event that occurred on 4 5 July 2003 in east China were successfully simulated through rainfall assimilation using the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic, mesoscale, numerical model （MM5） and its four-dimensional, variational, data assimilation （4DVAR） system. For this case, the improvement of the process via the 4DVAR rainfall assimilation into the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems is investigated. With the rainfall assimilation, the convection is triggered at the right location and time, and the evolution and spatial distribution of the mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） are also more correctly simulated. Through the interactions between MCSs and the weather systems at different scales, including the low-level jet and mei-yu front, the simulation of the entire mei-yu weather system is significantly improved, both during the data assimilation window and the subsequent 12-h period. The results suggest that the rainfall assimilation first provides positive impact at the convective scale and the influences are then propagated upscale to the meso- and sub-synoptic scales. Through a set of sensitive experiments designed to evaluate the impact of different initial variables on the simulation of mei-yu heavy rainfall, it was found that the moisture field and meridional wind had the strongest effect during the convection initialization stage, however, after the convection was fully triggered, all of the variables at the initial condition seemed to have comparable importance.展开更多
Characteristics of air pollution in Northeast China(NEC) received less research attention in the past comparing to other heavily polluted regions in China.Spatiotemporal variations of six criteria air pollutants(PM10,...Characteristics of air pollution in Northeast China(NEC) received less research attention in the past comparing to other heavily polluted regions in China.Spatiotemporal variations of six criteria air pollutants(PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) in Central Liaoning Urban Agglomeration(CLUA) and Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration(HCUA) in NEC Plain were analyzed in this study based on three-year hourly observations of air pollutants and meteorological variables from 2015 to 2017.The results indicated that the annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are generally higher in the middle and southern regions in NEC Plain and lower in the northern region.Megacities such as Shenyang, Harbin and Changchun experience severe air pollution, with a three-year averaged air quality index(AQI) larger than 80, far exceeding the daily AQI standard at the first-level of 50 in China.The annual mean PM and SO2 concentrations decrease most significantly in NEC urban agglomerations from 2015 to 2017, followed by CO and NO2, while O3 shows a slight increasing trend.All the six pollutants exhibit obvious seasonal and diurnal variations, and these variations are dictated by local emission and meteorological conditions.PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in NEC urban agglomerations strongly depend on wind conditions.High O3 concentrations at different cities usually occur in presence of strong winds but are independent on wind direction(WD), while high PM2.5 is usually accompanied by weak winds and poor dispersion condition, and sometimes also occur when the northerly or southerly winds are strong.Regional transport of air pollutants between NEC urban agglomerations is common.A severe haze event on November 1–4, 2017 is examined to demonstrate the role of regional transport on pollution.展开更多
China is a country that is frequently affected by severe convective weather. Here, severe convective weather mainly refers to intense local heavy precipitation, thunderstorm-induced gale-force winds including those fr...China is a country that is frequently affected by severe convective weather. Here, severe convective weather mainly refers to intense local heavy precipitation, thunderstorm-induced gale-force winds including those from tornadoes and downbursts, and hail and lightning. These types of severe weather are usually small in spatial scale and rapid in their development, and are therefore difficult to capture by observational networks and are poorly resolved in typical operational numerical weather prediction （NWP） models. Furthermore, many of the important dynamic and physical processes involved are not well understood. Within China, the impacts of severe convective weather rank only after those of landfalling typhoons and widespread heavy precipitation and flooding. Studies （e.g., Zhang and Zhai, 2011） have shown tendencies for an increased frequency in short-duration extreme precipitation during the past several decades over most of eastern China, where the population is most dense. An in-depth understanding of severe convective weather in China, as well as being able to accurately predict it, is clearly of great importance.展开更多
Parallel back-building convective lines are often observed extending to the southwest of some mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)embedded in the mei-yu front in China.The convective lines with echo training behavior ca...Parallel back-building convective lines are often observed extending to the southwest of some mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)embedded in the mei-yu front in China.The convective lines with echo training behavior can quickly develop into a stronger convective group of echoes,resulting in locally heavy rainfall within the mei-yu front rainband.The initiation mechanism of the back-building convective lines is still unclear and is studied based on high-resolution numerical simulation of a case that occurred during 27−28 June 2013.In the present case,the new convection along the convective lines was found to be forced by nonuniform interaction between the cold outflow associated with the mei-yu front MCSs and the warm southerly airflow on the south side of the mei-yu front,which both are modified by local terrain.The mei-yu front MCSs evolved from the western to the eastern side of a basin surrounded by several mesoscale mountains and induced cold outflow centered over the eastern part of the basin.The strong southwest airflow ahead of the mei-yu front passed the Nanling Mountains and impacted the cold outflow within the basin.The nonuniform interaction led to the first stage of parallel convective line formation,in which the low mountains along the boundary of the two airflows enhanced the heterogeneity of their interaction.Subsequently,the convective group quickly developed from the first stage convective lines resulted in apparent precipitation cooling that enhanced the cold outflow and made the cold outflow a sharp southward windshift.The enhanced cold outflow pushed the warm southerly airflow southward and impacted the mountains on the southeast side of the basin,where the roughly parallel mountain valleys or gaps play a controlling role in a second stage formation of parallel convective lines.展开更多
Using data from automatic surface weather stations, buoys, lidar and Doppler, the diurnal variation and the three-dimensional structure of the sea breezes near the sailing sites of the Good Luck Beijing- 2006 Qingdao ...Using data from automatic surface weather stations, buoys, lidar and Doppler, the diurnal variation and the three-dimensional structure of the sea breezes near the sailing sites of the Good Luck Beijing- 2006 Qingdao International Regatta from 18 to 31 August 2006 are analyzed. Results show that excluding rainy days and days affected by typhoon, the sea breezes occur nearly every day during this period. When Qingdao is located at the edge of the subtropical high at 500 hPa, the sea breeze is usually stronger, around 3-4 m s^-1. It starts at around 1100 to 1300 LST and lasts about 6 hours. The direction of the sea breeze tends to be southeasterly. When Qingdao is under the control of the subtropical high, the sea breeze is usually weaker, less than 2.5 m s^-1 throughout the day, and begins later, between 1300 and 1500 LST. In this case, the direction of the sea breeze is variable from easterly to southeasterly. Most sea breezes in Qingdao are very shallow, up to 300 meters deep. Strong sea breezes can reach 1.5 km in depth and can push as far as 100 km inland. If the Huanghai sea breeze moves inland and meets the sea breeze of the Jiaozhou Bay in the western part of Qingdao, the sea breeze will strengthen and form three boundaries due to the interaction of the two sea breezes.展开更多
In this study,the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)approach was used to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks based on observed TC track data obtained from the Joint Typ...In this study,the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)approach was used to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks based on observed TC track data obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.The results show that the predictability limit of all TC tracks over the whole western North Pacific(WNP)basin is about 102 h,and the average lifetime of all TC tracks is about 174 h.The predictability limits of the TC tracks for short-,medium-,and long-lived TCs are approximately 72 h,120 h,and 132 h,respectively.The predictability limit of the TC tracks depends on the TC genesis location,lifetime,and intensity,and further analysis indicated that these three metrics are closely related.The more intense and longer-lived TCs tend to be generated on the eastern side of the WNP(EWNP),whereas the weaker and shorter-lived TCs tend to form in the west of the WNP(WWNP)and the South China Sea(SCS).The relatively stronger and longer-lived TCs,which are generated mainly in the EWNP,have a longer travel time before they curve northeastwards and hence tend to be more predictable than the relatively weaker and shorter-lived TCs that form in the WWNP region and SCS.Furthermore,the results show that the predictability limit of the TC tracks obtained from the best-track data may be underestimated due to the relatively short observational records currently available.Further work is needed,employing a numerical model to assess the predictability of TC tracks.展开更多
On 21 July 2012,an extreme rainfall event that recorded a maximum rainfall amount over 24 hours of 460 mm,occurred in Beijing,China. Most operational models failed to predict such an extreme amount. In this study,a co...On 21 July 2012,an extreme rainfall event that recorded a maximum rainfall amount over 24 hours of 460 mm,occurred in Beijing,China. Most operational models failed to predict such an extreme amount. In this study,a convective-permitting ensemble forecast system（CEFS）,at 4-km grid spacing,covering the entire mainland of China,is applied to this extreme rainfall case. CEFS consists of 22 members and uses multiple physics parameterizations. For the event,the predicted maximum is 415 mm d^-1 in the probability-matched ensemble mean. The predicted high-probability heavy rain region is located in southwest Beijing,as was observed. Ensemble-based verification scores are then investigated. For a small verification domain covering Beijing and its surrounding areas,the precipitation rank histogram of CEFS is much flatter than that of a reference global ensemble. CEFS has a lower（higher） Brier score and a higher resolution than the global ensemble for precipitation,indicating more reliable probabilistic forecasting by CEFS. Additionally,forecasts of different ensemble members are compared and discussed. Most of the extreme rainfall comes from convection in the warm sector east of an approaching cold front. A few members of CEFS successfully reproduce such precipitation,and orographic lift of highly moist low-level flows with a significantly southeasterly component is suggested to have played important roles in producing the initial convection. Comparisons between good and bad forecast members indicate a strong sensitivity of the extreme rainfall to the mesoscale environmental conditions,and,to less of an extent,the model physics.展开更多
An extreme rainfall event occurred over Hangzhou,China,during the afternoon hours on 24 June 2013.This event occurred under suitable synoptic conditions and the maximum 4-h cumulative rainfall amount was over 150 mm.T...An extreme rainfall event occurred over Hangzhou,China,during the afternoon hours on 24 June 2013.This event occurred under suitable synoptic conditions and the maximum 4-h cumulative rainfall amount was over 150 mm.This rainfall event had two major rainbands.One was caused by a quasi-stationary convective line,and the other by a backbuilding convective line related to the interaction of the outflow boundary from the first rainband and an existing low-level mesoscale convergence line associated with a mei-yu frontal system.The rainfall event lasted 4 h,while the back-building process occurred in 2 h when the extreme rainfall center formed.So far,few studies have examined the back-building processes in the mei-yu season that are caused by the interaction of a mesoscale convergence line and a convective cold pool.The two rainbands are successfully reproduced by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with fourlevel,two-way interactive nesting.In the model,new cells repeatedly occur at the west side of older cells,and the backbuilding process occurs in an environment with large CAPE,a low LFC,and plenty of water vapor.Outflows from older cells enhance the low-level convergence that forces new cells.High precipitation efficiency of the back-building training cells leads to accumulated precipitation of over 150 mm.Sensitivity experiments without evaporation of rainwater show that the convective cold pool plays an important role in the organization of the back-building process in the current extreme precipitation case.展开更多
Assessment of past-climate simulations of regional climate models(RCMs)is important for understanding the reliability of RCMs when used to project future regional climate.Here,we assess the performance and discuss pos...Assessment of past-climate simulations of regional climate models(RCMs)is important for understanding the reliability of RCMs when used to project future regional climate.Here,we assess the performance and discuss possible causes of biases in a WRF-based RCM with a grid spacing of 50 km,named WRFG,from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program(NARCCAP)in simulating wet season precipitation over the Central United States for a period when observational data are available.The RCM reproduces key features of the precipitation distribution characteristics during late spring to early summer,although it tends to underestimate the magnitude of precipitation.This dry bias is partially due to the model’s lack of skill in simulating nocturnal precipitation related to the lack of eastward propagating convective systems in the simulation.Inaccuracy in reproducing large-scale circulation and environmental conditions is another contributing factor.The too weak simulated pressure gradient between the Rocky Mountains and the Gulf of Mexico results in weaker southerly winds in between,leading to a reduction of warm moist air transport from the Gulf to the Central Great Plains.The simulated low-level horizontal convergence fields are less favorable for upward motion than in the NARR and hence,for the development of moist convection as well.Therefore,a careful examination of an RCM’s deficiencies and the identification of the source of errors are important when using the RCM to project precipitation changes in future climate scenarios.展开更多
The Great Plains region of the United States is susceptible to drought of all kinds including meteorological/climatological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic. Drought conditions in the region span varying...The Great Plains region of the United States is susceptible to drought of all kinds including meteorological/climatological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic. Drought conditions in the region span varying spatial and temporal scales and the causes include: 1) certain synoptic conditions that favor drought such as mid-tropospheric ridging over the drought-affected area and a weak low-level jet;2) sea surface temperature anomalies and associated teleconnections;3) land-atmosphere coupling;and 4) anthropogenic effects. While drought can span as few as a couple of months, the most severe droughts can occur at the decadal scale such as the 1930s Dust Bowl, the worst drought in recent history from a societal standpoint. Such droughts in the Great Plains have widespread impacts on agriculture, water resources, human health, and the economy.展开更多
The radar ray path equations are used to determine the physical location of each radar measurement. These equations are necessary for mapping radar data to computational grids for diagnosis, display and numerical weat...The radar ray path equations are used to determine the physical location of each radar measurement. These equations are necessary for mapping radar data to computational grids for diagnosis, display and numerical weather prediction （NWP）. They are also used to determine the forward operators for assimilation of radar data into forecast models. In this paper, a stepwise ray tracing method is developed. The influence of the atmospheric refractive index on the ray path equations at different locations related to an intense cold front is examined against the ray path derived from the new tracing method. It is shown that the radar ray path is not very sensitive to sharp vertical gradients of refractive index caused by the strong temperature inversion and large moisture gradient in this case. In the paper, the errors caused by using the simplified straight ray path equations are also examined. It is found that there will be significant errors in the physical location of radar measurements if the earth＇s curvature is not considered, especially at lower elevation angles. A reduced form of the equation for beam height calculation is derived using Taylor series expansion. It is computationally more efficient and also avoids the need to use double precision variables to mitigate the small difference between two large terms in the original form. The accuracy of this reduced form is found to be sufficient for modeling use.展开更多
Many weather radar networks in the world have now provided polarimetric radar data(PRD)that have the potential to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation microphysics,and numerical weather prediction(NWP)...Many weather radar networks in the world have now provided polarimetric radar data(PRD)that have the potential to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation microphysics,and numerical weather prediction(NWP).To realize this potential,an accurate and efficient set of polarimetric observation operators are needed to simulate and assimilate the PRD with an NWP model for an accurate analysis of the model state variables.For this purpose,a set of parameterized observation operators are developed to simulate and assimilate polarimetric radar data from NWP model-predicted hydrometeor mixing ratios and number concentrations of rain,snow,hail,and graupel.The polarimetric radar variables are calculated based on the T-matrix calculation of wave scattering and integrations of the scattering weighted by the particle size distribution.The calculated polarimetric variables are then fitted to simple functions of water content and volumeweighted mean diameter of the hydrometeor particle size distribution.The parameterized PRD operators are applied to an ideal case and a real case predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model to have simulated PRD,which are compared with existing operators and real observations to show their validity and applicability.The new PRD operators use less than one percent of the computing time of the old operators to complete the same simulations,making it efficient in PRD simulation and assimilation usage.展开更多
The UK Met Office Unified Model（UM） is employed by many weather forecasting agencies around the globe. This model is designed to run across spatial and time scales and known to produce skillful predictions for large...The UK Met Office Unified Model（UM） is employed by many weather forecasting agencies around the globe. This model is designed to run across spatial and time scales and known to produce skillful predictions for large-scale weather systems. However, the model has only recently begun running operationally at horizontal grid spacings of ～1.5 km [e.g.,at the UK Met Office and the Korea Meteorological Administration（KMA）]. As its microphysics scheme was originally designed and tuned for large-scale precipitation systems, we investigate the performance of UM microphysics to determine potential inherent biases or weaknesses. Two rainfall cases from the KMA forecasting system are considered in this study： a Changma（quasi-stationary） front, and Typhoon Sanba（2012）. The UM output is compared to polarimetric radar observations in terms of simulated polarimetric radar variables. Results show that the UM generally underpredicts median reflectivity in stratiform rain, producing high reflectivity cores and precipitation gaps between them. This is partially due to the diagnostic rain intercept parameter formulation used in the one-moment microphysics scheme. Model drop size is generally both underand overpredicted compared to observations. UM frozen hydrometeors favor generic ice（crystals and snow） rather than graupel, which is reasonable for Changma and typhoon cases. The model performed best with the typhoon case in terms of simulated precipitation coverage.展开更多
A 24-h simulation with the Advanced Regional Prediction System （ARPS） nonhydrostatic model is performed for the heavy snowfall event of 3-4 February 1998 along the eastern coast of Korean Peninsula; the results are ...A 24-h simulation with the Advanced Regional Prediction System （ARPS） nonhydrostatic model is performed for the heavy snowfall event of 3-4 February 1998 along the eastern coast of Korean Peninsula; the results are used to understand the snowfall process, including why the precipitation maxima formed along the Yeongdong coastal region rather than over the mountain slope and ridge top during. The numerical simulation with a 4-kin horizontal grid spacing and 43 levels reproduces very well the narrow snowband located off the eastern Korean coast, away from, instead of over, the Yeongdong coastal mountain range. The general evolution of the snowband agrees quite well with radar observations, while the water-equivalent precipitation amount agrees reasonably well with radar precipitation estimate. The simulation results clearly show that the snow band developed due to the lifting by a coastal front that developed because of the damming of cold air against the eastern slope of the coastal mountain range. The damming was enhanced by the advection of cold air by a tow-level mountain-parallel jet from the north, formed due to geostrophic adjustment as the on-shore upslope air was decelerated by the mountain blocking. As the onshore flow weakened later due to synoptic-scale flow pattern change, the cold front propagated off shore and the precipitation dissipated.展开更多
基金supported by the Australian Research Council(Grant No.CE230100012)。
文摘The onset,cessation,and length of the rainy season are crucial for global water resources,agricultural practices,and food security.However,the response of precipitation seasonality to global warming remains uncertain.In this study,we analyze how global warming levels(GWLs)of 1.5℃ and 2℃ could affect the timing of rainfall onset(RODs),rainfall cessation(RCDs),and the overall duration of the rainy season(LRS)over global land monsoon(GLM)regions using simulations from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.With high model consensus,our results reveal that RODs are projected to occur later over Southern Africa,North Africa,and South America,but earlier over South Asia and Australia,in a warmer climate.The projected early RODs in Australia are more pronounced at the 2℃ GWL under SSP5-8.5.On the other hand,early RCDs are projected over South America and East Asia,while late RCDs are projected over North Africa,with high inter-model agreement.These changes are associated with a future decrease in LRS in most GLM regions.Additionally,we found that continuous warming over 1.5℃ will further reduce the length of the rainy season,especially over the South America,North Africa,and Southern Africa monsoon regions.The findings underscore the urgent need to mitigate global warming.
文摘The year 2024 marked the 40th anniversary of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences(AAS),as well as the centenary of the Chinese Meteorological Society(CMS).The inaugural issue of AAS was published in 1984,initially being sponsored primarily by Chinese National Committee for the International Association of Meteorological and Atmospheric Sciences(IAMAS)and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.In 2006,Springer became AAS’s international publisher.Then,in 2015,the CMS joined in sponsoring AAS,and in the same year,AAS also became an affiliated journal of the IAMAS.These milestone events helped broaden the reach of AAS,culminating in the journal establishing itself as a truly international journal supporting the advancement of the atmospheric sciences.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.42075149the Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2021YFC101500.
文摘Ocean reanalysis data,compared to traditional observational data,possess stronger continuity and higher data accuracy.The globally high-resolution ice-ocean coupled reanalysis product China Ocean ReAnalysis,Version 2.0(CORA v2.0),independently developed by the National Marine Information Center,has attracted considerable attention since its release in 2020.This study selected six representative points of sound velocity profiles in different global ocean regions and conducted comparative analysis between the 2014 momentary data from CORA v2.0 and Argo data.Additionally,the monthly average data of CORA v2.0 in 2013 were compared and studied against General Digital Environmental Model(GDEM)and World Ocean Atlas(WOA)data.Metrics such as Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Error(ME)were introduced to evaluate the differences between datasets.The result reveals that,in a comparison of single moment data,the sound velocity profiles of CORA v2.0 data and Argo data exhibit high consistency,with ME generally within 2 m/s.Regarding a comparison of monthly average data,the consistency between CORA v2.0 data and WOA data is higher,while the error relative to GDEM data is relatively larger,but their RMSE and ME exhibit high similarity in temporal trends.Based on the 2014 data of CORA v2.0,the temporal and spatial evolutionary laws of global seawater sound velocity profiles and sound speed fields were analyzed.On the time scale,the variation of seawater sound speed is mainly influenced by seasons,with significant differences between winter and summer seasons.On the daily scale,there are certain differences in sound velocity profiles mainly in the early morning and afternoon.On the spatial scale,analysis was conducted from both horizontal and vertical perspectives.The distribution of sound speed exhibits evident regularity with latitude,with shallow seawater sound speed being greatly influenced by external factors while deep seawater is relatively stable.Using the Range-dependent Acoustic Model for Geoacoustics(RAMgeo)model to solve the underwater acoustic field at three specific points,the characteristic changes of sound velocity profiles at different times of the day and their impact on under water sound propagation losses were obtained.This paper provides valuable information for the application of CORA v2.0 data products.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U23A2032,42006193)supported by the Hainan Provincial Excellent Talent Team Project(Space Observation of Deep-sea)。
文摘Internal solitary waves(ISWs)have considerable energy to drive the mixing of water masses in the Sulu Sea.The propagation speed is one of the critical parameters in quantifying the energy budget of the ISWs.We collected 1354 groups of ISWs’speeds from tandem satellite remote sensing images with temporal intervals shorter than 25 min and analyzed their spatial and multi-scale temporal variations in the Sulu Sea.We found that water depth plays an important role in modulating the spatial variation of wave speeds,which increase exponentially with water depth with a power of 0.26.Tidal currents,ocean stratification,background circulation,and climate affect the temporal variations of wave speeds from days to months or years.The fortnightly spring/neap tidal currents cause daily variations of wave speeds up to 40%by modulating the ISW amplitudes.In addition to the well-accepted results that monthly variations of wave speeds are related to density stratification,we found that enhanced stratification increases wave speeds,and the background circulation leads to a maximum decrease of 0.27 m/s in the linear counterparts of wave speed.Moreover,the averaged wave speed collected in October is lower than the corresponding linear one possibly due to some unknown dynamical processes or underestimation of background current.As for the interannual variations,we show that wave speed increases in La Niña years and decreases in El Niño years as a result of the climatic modulation on the depth of the maximum value of buoyancy frequency.
基金primarily supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC1501703)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41875053,41475015 and 41322032)+1 种基金the National Fundamental Research 973 Program of China(Grant Nos.2013CB430101 and 2015CB452800)collected by a National 973 Project(Grant No.2013CB430101)
文摘Seasonal variations of rainfall microphysics in East China are investigated using data from the observations of a twodimensional video disdrometer and a vertically pointing micro rain radar. The precipitation and rain drop size distribution(DSD) characteristics are revealed for different rain types and seasons. Summer rainfall is dominated by convective rain,while during the other seasons the contribution of stratiform rain to rainfall amount is equal to or even larger than that of convective rain. The mean mass-weighted diameter versus the generalized intercept parameter pairs of convective rain are plotted roughly around the "maritime" cluster, indicating a maritime nature of convective precipitation throughout the year in East China. The localized rainfall estimators, i.e., rainfall kinetic energy–rain rate, shape–slope, and radar reflectivity–rain rate relations are further derived. DSD variability is believed to be a major source of diversity of the aforementioned derived estimators. These newly derived relations would certainly improve the accuracy of rainfall kinetic energy estimation, DSD retrieval, and quantitative precipitation estimation in this specific region.
基金Under the auspices of Programme of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities by Ministry of Education and the State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs, China (the 111 Project, No. B08048)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41501017)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (No. BK20150815)
文摘The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis （TMPA） and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （NOAA） Climate Prediction Center （CPC） morphing technique （CMORPH） are two important multi-satellite precipitation products in TRMM-era and perform important functions in GPM-era. Both TMPA and CMORPH systems simultaneously upgraded their retrieval algorithms and released their latest version of precipitation data in 2013. In this study, the latest TMPA and CMORPH products （i.e., Version-7 real-time TMPA （T-rt） and gauge-adjusted TMPA （T-adj）, and Version- 1.0 real-time CMORPH （C-rt） and Version-l.0 gauge-adjusted CMORPH （C-adj）） are evaluated and intercompared by using independent rain gauge observations for a 12-year （2000--2011） period over two typical basins in China with different geographical and climate conditions. Results indicate that all TMPA and CMORPH products tend to overestimate precipitation for the high-latitude semiarid Laoha River Basin and underestimate it for the low-latitude humid Mishui Basin. Overall, the satellite precipitation products exhibit superior performance over Mishui Basin than that over Laoha River Basin. The C-adj presents the best performance over the high-latitude Laoha River Basin, whereas T-adj showed the best performance over the low-latitude Mishui Basin. The two gauge-adjusted products demonstrate potential in water resource management. However, the accuracy of two real-time satellite precipitation products demonstrates large variability in the two validation basins. The C-rt reaches a similar accuracy level with the gauge-adjusted satellite precipitation products in the high-latitude Laoha River Basin, and T-rt performs well in the low-latitude Mishui Basin. The study also reveals that all satellite precipitation products obviously overestimate light rain amounts and events over Laoha River Basin, whereas they underestimate the amount and events over Mishui Basin. The findings of the precision characteristics associated with the latest TMPA and CMORPH precipitation products at different basins will offer satellite pre- cipitation users an enhanced understanding of the applicability of the latest TMPA and CMORPH for water resource management, hydrologic process simulation, and hydrometeorological disaster prediction in other similar regions in China. The findings will also be useful for IMERG algorithm development and update in GPM-era.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40325014, 40333031SRFDP, TRAP0YT, FANEDD 11999, and under the support of The Key Scientific and Technological Project of the Ministry of Education The State Key Basic Research Program （Grant No. 2004CB18300）.
文摘The multi-scale weather systems associated with a mei-yu front and the corresponding heavy precipitation during a particular heavy rainfall event that occurred on 4 5 July 2003 in east China were successfully simulated through rainfall assimilation using the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic, mesoscale, numerical model （MM5） and its four-dimensional, variational, data assimilation （4DVAR） system. For this case, the improvement of the process via the 4DVAR rainfall assimilation into the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems is investigated. With the rainfall assimilation, the convection is triggered at the right location and time, and the evolution and spatial distribution of the mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） are also more correctly simulated. Through the interactions between MCSs and the weather systems at different scales, including the low-level jet and mei-yu front, the simulation of the entire mei-yu weather system is significantly improved, both during the data assimilation window and the subsequent 12-h period. The results suggest that the rainfall assimilation first provides positive impact at the convective scale and the influences are then propagated upscale to the meso- and sub-synoptic scales. Through a set of sensitive experiments designed to evaluate the impact of different initial variables on the simulation of mei-yu heavy rainfall, it was found that the moisture field and meridional wind had the strongest effect during the convection initialization stage, however, after the convection was fully triggered, all of the variables at the initial condition seemed to have comparable importance.
基金Under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFC0212301,2016YFC0203304)Basic Research Funds of Central Public Welfare Research Institutes(No.2018SYIAEZD4)+3 种基金Program of Liaoning Meteorological Office(No.201904,D201603)Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41730647)Program of Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry,China Meteorological Administration(No.2017B02)Key Program of Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province(No.20170520359)
文摘Characteristics of air pollution in Northeast China(NEC) received less research attention in the past comparing to other heavily polluted regions in China.Spatiotemporal variations of six criteria air pollutants(PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) in Central Liaoning Urban Agglomeration(CLUA) and Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration(HCUA) in NEC Plain were analyzed in this study based on three-year hourly observations of air pollutants and meteorological variables from 2015 to 2017.The results indicated that the annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are generally higher in the middle and southern regions in NEC Plain and lower in the northern region.Megacities such as Shenyang, Harbin and Changchun experience severe air pollution, with a three-year averaged air quality index(AQI) larger than 80, far exceeding the daily AQI standard at the first-level of 50 in China.The annual mean PM and SO2 concentrations decrease most significantly in NEC urban agglomerations from 2015 to 2017, followed by CO and NO2, while O3 shows a slight increasing trend.All the six pollutants exhibit obvious seasonal and diurnal variations, and these variations are dictated by local emission and meteorological conditions.PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in NEC urban agglomerations strongly depend on wind conditions.High O3 concentrations at different cities usually occur in presence of strong winds but are independent on wind direction(WD), while high PM2.5 is usually accompanied by weak winds and poor dispersion condition, and sometimes also occur when the northerly or southerly winds are strong.Regional transport of air pollutants between NEC urban agglomerations is common.A severe haze event on November 1–4, 2017 is examined to demonstrate the role of regional transport on pollution.
基金supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China National "973" Fundamental Research Program(Grant No.2013CB430103)
文摘China is a country that is frequently affected by severe convective weather. Here, severe convective weather mainly refers to intense local heavy precipitation, thunderstorm-induced gale-force winds including those from tornadoes and downbursts, and hail and lightning. These types of severe weather are usually small in spatial scale and rapid in their development, and are therefore difficult to capture by observational networks and are poorly resolved in typical operational numerical weather prediction （NWP） models. Furthermore, many of the important dynamic and physical processes involved are not well understood. Within China, the impacts of severe convective weather rank only after those of landfalling typhoons and widespread heavy precipitation and flooding. Studies （e.g., Zhang and Zhai, 2011） have shown tendencies for an increased frequency in short-duration extreme precipitation during the past several decades over most of eastern China, where the population is most dense. An in-depth understanding of severe convective weather in China, as well as being able to accurately predict it, is clearly of great importance.
基金the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC1501603)the Major Research Plan of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91937301)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41775054,41375061 and 40705019).
文摘Parallel back-building convective lines are often observed extending to the southwest of some mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)embedded in the mei-yu front in China.The convective lines with echo training behavior can quickly develop into a stronger convective group of echoes,resulting in locally heavy rainfall within the mei-yu front rainband.The initiation mechanism of the back-building convective lines is still unclear and is studied based on high-resolution numerical simulation of a case that occurred during 27−28 June 2013.In the present case,the new convection along the convective lines was found to be forced by nonuniform interaction between the cold outflow associated with the mei-yu front MCSs and the warm southerly airflow on the south side of the mei-yu front,which both are modified by local terrain.The mei-yu front MCSs evolved from the western to the eastern side of a basin surrounded by several mesoscale mountains and induced cold outflow centered over the eastern part of the basin.The strong southwest airflow ahead of the mei-yu front passed the Nanling Mountains and impacted the cold outflow within the basin.The nonuniform interaction led to the first stage of parallel convective line formation,in which the low mountains along the boundary of the two airflows enhanced the heterogeneity of their interaction.Subsequently,the convective group quickly developed from the first stage convective lines resulted in apparent precipitation cooling that enhanced the cold outflow and made the cold outflow a sharp southward windshift.The enhanced cold outflow pushed the warm southerly airflow southward and impacted the mountains on the southeast side of the basin,where the roughly parallel mountain valleys or gaps play a controlling role in a second stage formation of parallel convective lines.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foun-dation of China Grant (Grant No. 40705017)the Chinese Academy of Sciences Grant (Grant No. 2004-2-7)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province Grant(Grant No. Q2007E03)
文摘Using data from automatic surface weather stations, buoys, lidar and Doppler, the diurnal variation and the three-dimensional structure of the sea breezes near the sailing sites of the Good Luck Beijing- 2006 Qingdao International Regatta from 18 to 31 August 2006 are analyzed. Results show that excluding rainy days and days affected by typhoon, the sea breezes occur nearly every day during this period. When Qingdao is located at the edge of the subtropical high at 500 hPa, the sea breeze is usually stronger, around 3-4 m s^-1. It starts at around 1100 to 1300 LST and lasts about 6 hours. The direction of the sea breeze tends to be southeasterly. When Qingdao is under the control of the subtropical high, the sea breeze is usually weaker, less than 2.5 m s^-1 throughout the day, and begins later, between 1300 and 1500 LST. In this case, the direction of the sea breeze is variable from easterly to southeasterly. Most sea breezes in Qingdao are very shallow, up to 300 meters deep. Strong sea breezes can reach 1.5 km in depth and can push as far as 100 km inland. If the Huanghai sea breeze moves inland and meets the sea breeze of the Jiaozhou Bay in the western part of Qingdao, the sea breeze will strengthen and form three boundaries due to the interaction of the two sea breezes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China for Excellent Young Scholars (Grant No.41522502)the National Program on Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction (Grant No.GASI-IPOVAI03,GASI-IPOVAI-06)+1 种基金the Beijige Open Research Fund for Nanjing Joint Center of Atmospheric Research (Grant No.NJCAR2018ZD03)the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No.2015BAC03B07)
文摘In this study,the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)approach was used to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks based on observed TC track data obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.The results show that the predictability limit of all TC tracks over the whole western North Pacific(WNP)basin is about 102 h,and the average lifetime of all TC tracks is about 174 h.The predictability limits of the TC tracks for short-,medium-,and long-lived TCs are approximately 72 h,120 h,and 132 h,respectively.The predictability limit of the TC tracks depends on the TC genesis location,lifetime,and intensity,and further analysis indicated that these three metrics are closely related.The more intense and longer-lived TCs tend to be generated on the eastern side of the WNP(EWNP),whereas the weaker and shorter-lived TCs tend to form in the west of the WNP(WWNP)and the South China Sea(SCS).The relatively stronger and longer-lived TCs,which are generated mainly in the EWNP,have a longer travel time before they curve northeastwards and hence tend to be more predictable than the relatively weaker and shorter-lived TCs that form in the WWNP region and SCS.Furthermore,the results show that the predictability limit of the TC tracks obtained from the best-track data may be underestimated due to the relatively short observational records currently available.Further work is needed,employing a numerical model to assess the predictability of TC tracks.
基金supported by the National Fundamental Research (973) Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430103)the Special Foundation of the China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. GYHY201506006)supported by the National Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41405100)
文摘On 21 July 2012,an extreme rainfall event that recorded a maximum rainfall amount over 24 hours of 460 mm,occurred in Beijing,China. Most operational models failed to predict such an extreme amount. In this study,a convective-permitting ensemble forecast system（CEFS）,at 4-km grid spacing,covering the entire mainland of China,is applied to this extreme rainfall case. CEFS consists of 22 members and uses multiple physics parameterizations. For the event,the predicted maximum is 415 mm d^-1 in the probability-matched ensemble mean. The predicted high-probability heavy rain region is located in southwest Beijing,as was observed. Ensemble-based verification scores are then investigated. For a small verification domain covering Beijing and its surrounding areas,the precipitation rank histogram of CEFS is much flatter than that of a reference global ensemble. CEFS has a lower（higher） Brier score and a higher resolution than the global ensemble for precipitation,indicating more reliable probabilistic forecasting by CEFS. Additionally,forecasts of different ensemble members are compared and discussed. Most of the extreme rainfall comes from convection in the warm sector east of an approaching cold front. A few members of CEFS successfully reproduce such precipitation,and orographic lift of highly moist low-level flows with a significantly southeasterly component is suggested to have played important roles in producing the initial convection. Comparisons between good and bad forecast members indicate a strong sensitivity of the extreme rainfall to the mesoscale environmental conditions,and,to less of an extent,the model physics.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41730965, U2242204, and 41175047)the National Key Basic Research and Development Project of China (Grant No.2013CB430104)+2 种基金the Key Project of the Joint Funds of the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (Grant No.LZJMZ23D050003financial support from the China Scholarship Council for her visit to CAPSUniversity of Oklahoma
文摘An extreme rainfall event occurred over Hangzhou,China,during the afternoon hours on 24 June 2013.This event occurred under suitable synoptic conditions and the maximum 4-h cumulative rainfall amount was over 150 mm.This rainfall event had two major rainbands.One was caused by a quasi-stationary convective line,and the other by a backbuilding convective line related to the interaction of the outflow boundary from the first rainband and an existing low-level mesoscale convergence line associated with a mei-yu frontal system.The rainfall event lasted 4 h,while the back-building process occurred in 2 h when the extreme rainfall center formed.So far,few studies have examined the back-building processes in the mei-yu season that are caused by the interaction of a mesoscale convergence line and a convective cold pool.The two rainbands are successfully reproduced by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with fourlevel,two-way interactive nesting.In the model,new cells repeatedly occur at the west side of older cells,and the backbuilding process occurs in an environment with large CAPE,a low LFC,and plenty of water vapor.Outflows from older cells enhance the low-level convergence that forces new cells.High precipitation efficiency of the back-building training cells leads to accumulated precipitation of over 150 mm.Sensitivity experiments without evaporation of rainwater show that the convective cold pool plays an important role in the organization of the back-building process in the current extreme precipitation case.
文摘Assessment of past-climate simulations of regional climate models(RCMs)is important for understanding the reliability of RCMs when used to project future regional climate.Here,we assess the performance and discuss possible causes of biases in a WRF-based RCM with a grid spacing of 50 km,named WRFG,from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program(NARCCAP)in simulating wet season precipitation over the Central United States for a period when observational data are available.The RCM reproduces key features of the precipitation distribution characteristics during late spring to early summer,although it tends to underestimate the magnitude of precipitation.This dry bias is partially due to the model’s lack of skill in simulating nocturnal precipitation related to the lack of eastward propagating convective systems in the simulation.Inaccuracy in reproducing large-scale circulation and environmental conditions is another contributing factor.The too weak simulated pressure gradient between the Rocky Mountains and the Gulf of Mexico results in weaker southerly winds in between,leading to a reduction of warm moist air transport from the Gulf to the Central Great Plains.The simulated low-level horizontal convergence fields are less favorable for upward motion than in the NARR and hence,for the development of moist convection as well.Therefore,a careful examination of an RCM’s deficiencies and the identification of the source of errors are important when using the RCM to project precipitation changes in future climate scenarios.
文摘The Great Plains region of the United States is susceptible to drought of all kinds including meteorological/climatological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic. Drought conditions in the region span varying spatial and temporal scales and the causes include: 1) certain synoptic conditions that favor drought such as mid-tropospheric ridging over the drought-affected area and a weak low-level jet;2) sea surface temperature anomalies and associated teleconnections;3) land-atmosphere coupling;and 4) anthropogenic effects. While drought can span as few as a couple of months, the most severe droughts can occur at the decadal scale such as the 1930s Dust Bowl, the worst drought in recent history from a societal standpoint. Such droughts in the Great Plains have widespread impacts on agriculture, water resources, human health, and the economy.
基金This work was supported by US NSF ATM-0129892,ATM-0331756,ATM-0331594 and EEC-0313747,and D0T-FAA grant NA17RJ1227-01The first author was also partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China for young investigators(Grant No.40505022)+1 种基金Ming Xue was also supported by the 0utstanding 0verseas Scholars Award of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.2004-2-7)Graphic plots were generated by the GNUPL0T graphics package.
文摘The radar ray path equations are used to determine the physical location of each radar measurement. These equations are necessary for mapping radar data to computational grids for diagnosis, display and numerical weather prediction （NWP）. They are also used to determine the forward operators for assimilation of radar data into forecast models. In this paper, a stepwise ray tracing method is developed. The influence of the atmospheric refractive index on the ray path equations at different locations related to an intense cold front is examined against the ray path derived from the new tracing method. It is shown that the radar ray path is not very sensitive to sharp vertical gradients of refractive index caused by the strong temperature inversion and large moisture gradient in this case. In the paper, the errors caused by using the simplified straight ray path equations are also examined. It is found that there will be significant errors in the physical location of radar measurements if the earth＇s curvature is not considered, especially at lower elevation angles. A reduced form of the equation for beam height calculation is derived using Taylor series expansion. It is computationally more efficient and also avoids the need to use double precision variables to mitigate the small difference between two large terms in the original form. The accuracy of this reduced form is found to be sufficient for modeling use.
基金the University of Oklahoma(OU)Supercomputing Center for Education&Research(OSCER).
文摘Many weather radar networks in the world have now provided polarimetric radar data(PRD)that have the potential to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation microphysics,and numerical weather prediction(NWP).To realize this potential,an accurate and efficient set of polarimetric observation operators are needed to simulate and assimilate the PRD with an NWP model for an accurate analysis of the model state variables.For this purpose,a set of parameterized observation operators are developed to simulate and assimilate polarimetric radar data from NWP model-predicted hydrometeor mixing ratios and number concentrations of rain,snow,hail,and graupel.The polarimetric radar variables are calculated based on the T-matrix calculation of wave scattering and integrations of the scattering weighted by the particle size distribution.The calculated polarimetric variables are then fitted to simple functions of water content and volumeweighted mean diameter of the hydrometeor particle size distribution.The parameterized PRD operators are applied to an ideal case and a real case predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model to have simulated PRD,which are compared with existing operators and real observations to show their validity and applicability.The new PRD operators use less than one percent of the computing time of the old operators to complete the same simulations,making it efficient in PRD simulation and assimilation usage.
基金supported by a research grant of “Development of a Polarimetric Radar Data Simulator for Local Forecasting Model (Ⅱ)” by the KMAsupport was provided by a NOAA Warn-on-Forecast grant (Grant No. NA16OAR4320115)a National Science Foundation grant (Grant No. AGS-1261776)
文摘The UK Met Office Unified Model（UM） is employed by many weather forecasting agencies around the globe. This model is designed to run across spatial and time scales and known to produce skillful predictions for large-scale weather systems. However, the model has only recently begun running operationally at horizontal grid spacings of ～1.5 km [e.g.,at the UK Met Office and the Korea Meteorological Administration（KMA）]. As its microphysics scheme was originally designed and tuned for large-scale precipitation systems, we investigate the performance of UM microphysics to determine potential inherent biases or weaknesses. Two rainfall cases from the KMA forecasting system are considered in this study： a Changma（quasi-stationary） front, and Typhoon Sanba（2012）. The UM output is compared to polarimetric radar observations in terms of simulated polarimetric radar variables. Results show that the UM generally underpredicts median reflectivity in stratiform rain, producing high reflectivity cores and precipitation gaps between them. This is partially due to the diagnostic rain intercept parameter formulation used in the one-moment microphysics scheme. Model drop size is generally both underand overpredicted compared to observations. UM frozen hydrometeors favor generic ice（crystals and snow） rather than graupel, which is reasonable for Changma and typhoon cases. The model performed best with the typhoon case in terms of simulated precipitation coverage.
基金supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MEST)(Grant No. 2011-0013879)supported by NSF (Grant Nos. AGS-0802888,AGS-1046171,and EEC-0313747)
文摘A 24-h simulation with the Advanced Regional Prediction System （ARPS） nonhydrostatic model is performed for the heavy snowfall event of 3-4 February 1998 along the eastern coast of Korean Peninsula; the results are used to understand the snowfall process, including why the precipitation maxima formed along the Yeongdong coastal region rather than over the mountain slope and ridge top during. The numerical simulation with a 4-kin horizontal grid spacing and 43 levels reproduces very well the narrow snowband located off the eastern Korean coast, away from, instead of over, the Yeongdong coastal mountain range. The general evolution of the snowband agrees quite well with radar observations, while the water-equivalent precipitation amount agrees reasonably well with radar precipitation estimate. The simulation results clearly show that the snow band developed due to the lifting by a coastal front that developed because of the damming of cold air against the eastern slope of the coastal mountain range. The damming was enhanced by the advection of cold air by a tow-level mountain-parallel jet from the north, formed due to geostrophic adjustment as the on-shore upslope air was decelerated by the mountain blocking. As the onshore flow weakened later due to synoptic-scale flow pattern change, the cold front propagated off shore and the precipitation dissipated.
