Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system （UIFS） emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological syst...Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system （UIFS） emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE （THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in east- ern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing na- tional/international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.展开更多
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY200706001 and GYHY200906007)
文摘Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system （UIFS） emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE （THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in east- ern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing na- tional/international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.
