Harnessing solar power is essential for addressing the dual challenges of global warming and the depletion of traditional energy sources.However,the fluctuations and intermittency of photovoltaic(PV)power pose challen...Harnessing solar power is essential for addressing the dual challenges of global warming and the depletion of traditional energy sources.However,the fluctuations and intermittency of photovoltaic(PV)power pose challenges for its extensive incorporation into power grids.Thus,enhancing the precision of PV power prediction is particularly important.Although existing studies have made progress in short-term prediction,issues persist,particularly in the underutilization of temporal features and the neglect of correlations between satellite cloud images and PV power data.These factors hinder improvements in PV power prediction performance.To overcome these challenges,this paper proposes a novel PV power prediction method based on multi-stage temporal feature learning.First,the improved LSTMand SA-ConvLSTMare employed to extract the temporal feature of PV power and the spatial-temporal feature of satellite cloud images,respectively.Subsequently,a novel hybrid attention mechanism is proposed to identify the interplay between the two modalities,enhancing the capacity to focus on the most relevant features.Finally,theTransformermodel is applied to further capture the short-termtemporal patterns and long-term dependencies within multi-modal feature information.The paper also compares the proposed method with various competitive methods.The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the competitive methods in terms of accuracy and reliability in short-term PV power prediction.展开更多
The penetration rate of new wind and photovoltaic energy in the power system has increased significantly,and the dramatic fluctuation of the net load of the grid has led to a severe lack of flexibility in the regional...The penetration rate of new wind and photovoltaic energy in the power system has increased significantly,and the dramatic fluctuation of the net load of the grid has led to a severe lack of flexibility in the regional grid.This paper proposes a hierarchical optimal dispatch strategy for a high proportion of new energy power systems that considers the balanced response of grid flexibility.Firstly,various flexibility resource regulation capabilities on the source-load side are analyzed,and then flexibility demand and flexibility response are matched,and flexibility demand response assessment is proposed;then,a hierarchical optimal dispatch model of the grid taking flexibility adjustment capability into account is established,and the upper model optimizes the net load curve with the objectives of minimizing the fluctuation of the net load,maximizing the benefits of energy storage and controllable loads,and optimizing the flexibility adjustment capability.The upper layer model optimizes the net load curve by minimizing net load fluctuation,maximizing energy storage and controllable load revenue,and optimizing flexibility adjustment capability.In contrast,the lower layer model optimizes the power allocation of thermal power units and regulates the lost load of wind and solar power generation by minimizing the total system operating cost.The results show that the proposed strategy improves the flexibility of the grid by 15.2%,gives full play to the regulation capability of each flexibility resource,and reduces the fluctuation of the net load by 15.6%to achieve optimal coordination between different types of flexibility resources.展开更多
Responding to the stochasticity and uncertainty in the power height of distributed photovoltaic power generation.This paper presents a distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term power forecasting method based on Variat...Responding to the stochasticity and uncertainty in the power height of distributed photovoltaic power generation.This paper presents a distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term power forecasting method based on Variational Mode Decomposition(VMD)and Channel Attention Mechanism.First,Pearson’s correlation coefficient was utilized to filter out the meteorological factors that had a high impact on historical power.Second,the distributed PV power data were decomposed into a relatively smooth power series with different fluctuation patterns using variational modal decomposition(VMD).Finally,the reconstructed distributed PV power as well as other features are input into the combined CNN-SENet-BiLSTM model.In this model,the convolutional neural network(CNN)and channel attention mechanism dynamically adjust the weights while capturing the spatial features of the input data to improve the discriminative ability of key features.The extracted data is then fed into the bidirectional long short-term memory network(BiLSTM)to capture the time-series features,and the final output is the prediction result.The verification is conducted using a dataset from a distributed photovoltaic power station in the Northwest region of China.The results show that compared with other prediction methods,the method proposed in this paper has a higher prediction accuracy,which helps to improve the proportion of distributed PV access to the grid,and can guarantee the safe and stable operation of the power grid.展开更多
This paper presents an evaluation method for the entropy-weighting of wind power clusters that comprehensively evaluates the allocation problems of wind power clusters by considering the correlation between indicators...This paper presents an evaluation method for the entropy-weighting of wind power clusters that comprehensively evaluates the allocation problems of wind power clusters by considering the correlation between indicators and the dynamic performance of weight changes.A dynamic layered sorting allocation method is also proposed.The proposed evaluation method considers the power-limiting degree of the last cycle,the adjustment margin,and volatility.It uses the theory of weight variation to update the entropy weight coefficients of each indicator in real time,and then performs a fuzzy evaluation based on the membership function to obtain intuitive comprehensive evaluation results.A case study of a large-scale wind power base in Northwest China was conducted.The proposed evaluation method is compared with fixed-weight entropy and principal component analysis methods.The results show that the three scoring trends are the same,and that the proposed evaluation method is closer to the average level of the latter two,demonstrating higher accuracy.The proposed allocation method can reduce the number of adjustments made to wind farms,which is significant for the allocation and evaluation of wind power clusters.展开更多
为克服单一赋权法的局限性,结合山区干线公路交通特征及交通安全评价指标的选取原则,从社会因素、驾驶因素、环境因素、管理因素和道路因素五个维度出发,选取18个综合评价指标,运用序关系分析法(Order Relation Analysis Method,G1)-指...为克服单一赋权法的局限性,结合山区干线公路交通特征及交通安全评价指标的选取原则,从社会因素、驾驶因素、环境因素、管理因素和道路因素五个维度出发,选取18个综合评价指标,运用序关系分析法(Order Relation Analysis Method,G1)-指标相关性权重确定法(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation,CRITIC)确定各评价指标的权重,并结合折中妥协多属性决策法(VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje,VIKOR)对山区干线公路交通安全进行综合评价,提出了基于G1-CRITIC-VIKOR模型的山区干线公路交通安全综合评价及比选方法。以中国西部6条山区干线公路为例进行实证研究,结果表明,G1-CRITIC-VIKOR模型的评价效果与传统的秩和比(Rank-Sum Ratio,RSR)综合评价法及加权逼近理想解排序法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)的评价结果基本一致,且评价效果明显优于后者,具有更好的辨识性,验证了该模型的可行性和科学性。展开更多
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of Jiangsu Coastal Power Infrastructure Intelligent Engineering Research Center“Photovoltaic Power Prediction System Driven by Deep Learning and Multi-Source Data Fusion”(F2024-5044).
文摘Harnessing solar power is essential for addressing the dual challenges of global warming and the depletion of traditional energy sources.However,the fluctuations and intermittency of photovoltaic(PV)power pose challenges for its extensive incorporation into power grids.Thus,enhancing the precision of PV power prediction is particularly important.Although existing studies have made progress in short-term prediction,issues persist,particularly in the underutilization of temporal features and the neglect of correlations between satellite cloud images and PV power data.These factors hinder improvements in PV power prediction performance.To overcome these challenges,this paper proposes a novel PV power prediction method based on multi-stage temporal feature learning.First,the improved LSTMand SA-ConvLSTMare employed to extract the temporal feature of PV power and the spatial-temporal feature of satellite cloud images,respectively.Subsequently,a novel hybrid attention mechanism is proposed to identify the interplay between the two modalities,enhancing the capacity to focus on the most relevant features.Finally,theTransformermodel is applied to further capture the short-termtemporal patterns and long-term dependencies within multi-modal feature information.The paper also compares the proposed method with various competitive methods.The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the competitive methods in terms of accuracy and reliability in short-term PV power prediction.
文摘The penetration rate of new wind and photovoltaic energy in the power system has increased significantly,and the dramatic fluctuation of the net load of the grid has led to a severe lack of flexibility in the regional grid.This paper proposes a hierarchical optimal dispatch strategy for a high proportion of new energy power systems that considers the balanced response of grid flexibility.Firstly,various flexibility resource regulation capabilities on the source-load side are analyzed,and then flexibility demand and flexibility response are matched,and flexibility demand response assessment is proposed;then,a hierarchical optimal dispatch model of the grid taking flexibility adjustment capability into account is established,and the upper model optimizes the net load curve with the objectives of minimizing the fluctuation of the net load,maximizing the benefits of energy storage and controllable loads,and optimizing the flexibility adjustment capability.The upper layer model optimizes the net load curve by minimizing net load fluctuation,maximizing energy storage and controllable load revenue,and optimizing flexibility adjustment capability.In contrast,the lower layer model optimizes the power allocation of thermal power units and regulates the lost load of wind and solar power generation by minimizing the total system operating cost.The results show that the proposed strategy improves the flexibility of the grid by 15.2%,gives full play to the regulation capability of each flexibility resource,and reduces the fluctuation of the net load by 15.6%to achieve optimal coordination between different types of flexibility resources.
基金supported by the Inner Mongolia Power Company 2024 Staff Innovation Studio Innovation Project“Research on Cluster Output Prediction and Group Control Technology for County-Wide Distributed Photovoltaic Construction”.
文摘Responding to the stochasticity and uncertainty in the power height of distributed photovoltaic power generation.This paper presents a distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term power forecasting method based on Variational Mode Decomposition(VMD)and Channel Attention Mechanism.First,Pearson’s correlation coefficient was utilized to filter out the meteorological factors that had a high impact on historical power.Second,the distributed PV power data were decomposed into a relatively smooth power series with different fluctuation patterns using variational modal decomposition(VMD).Finally,the reconstructed distributed PV power as well as other features are input into the combined CNN-SENet-BiLSTM model.In this model,the convolutional neural network(CNN)and channel attention mechanism dynamically adjust the weights while capturing the spatial features of the input data to improve the discriminative ability of key features.The extracted data is then fed into the bidirectional long short-term memory network(BiLSTM)to capture the time-series features,and the final output is the prediction result.The verification is conducted using a dataset from a distributed photovoltaic power station in the Northwest region of China.The results show that compared with other prediction methods,the method proposed in this paper has a higher prediction accuracy,which helps to improve the proportion of distributed PV access to the grid,and can guarantee the safe and stable operation of the power grid.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52076038,U22B20112,No.52106238)the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities(No.423162,B230201051).
文摘This paper presents an evaluation method for the entropy-weighting of wind power clusters that comprehensively evaluates the allocation problems of wind power clusters by considering the correlation between indicators and the dynamic performance of weight changes.A dynamic layered sorting allocation method is also proposed.The proposed evaluation method considers the power-limiting degree of the last cycle,the adjustment margin,and volatility.It uses the theory of weight variation to update the entropy weight coefficients of each indicator in real time,and then performs a fuzzy evaluation based on the membership function to obtain intuitive comprehensive evaluation results.A case study of a large-scale wind power base in Northwest China was conducted.The proposed evaluation method is compared with fixed-weight entropy and principal component analysis methods.The results show that the three scoring trends are the same,and that the proposed evaluation method is closer to the average level of the latter two,demonstrating higher accuracy.The proposed allocation method can reduce the number of adjustments made to wind farms,which is significant for the allocation and evaluation of wind power clusters.
文摘为克服单一赋权法的局限性,结合山区干线公路交通特征及交通安全评价指标的选取原则,从社会因素、驾驶因素、环境因素、管理因素和道路因素五个维度出发,选取18个综合评价指标,运用序关系分析法(Order Relation Analysis Method,G1)-指标相关性权重确定法(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation,CRITIC)确定各评价指标的权重,并结合折中妥协多属性决策法(VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje,VIKOR)对山区干线公路交通安全进行综合评价,提出了基于G1-CRITIC-VIKOR模型的山区干线公路交通安全综合评价及比选方法。以中国西部6条山区干线公路为例进行实证研究,结果表明,G1-CRITIC-VIKOR模型的评价效果与传统的秩和比(Rank-Sum Ratio,RSR)综合评价法及加权逼近理想解排序法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)的评价结果基本一致,且评价效果明显优于后者,具有更好的辨识性,验证了该模型的可行性和科学性。
