This review summarizes the rapporteur report on advances in monitoring and forecasting of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones(TCs)and its impact during 2014–18,as presented to the 10th International Workshop o...This review summarizes the rapporteur report on advances in monitoring and forecasting of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones(TCs)and its impact during 2014–18,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia during 5th–9th December 2022.Major physical processes that can modulate TC rainfall distribution,including topography,storm motion,vertical wind shear,and intensity,along with the fundamental physics of rain bands and clouds as simulated by numerical models,diurnal variation of rainfall,and various synoptic and mesoscale features controlling the rainfall distribution are briefly discussed.Improvements to the dynamic core and physical processes in global models are providing useable forecasts nearly up to 7 days.This report also summarizes,some tools that have been developed to predict TC rainfall.Lately there is a tendency for operational forecasting centers to utilize multi-model ensemble systems for rainfall forecasting that demonstrate superior performance than individual models,ensemble members,or even single model ensembles.Major impacts include pluvial and fluvial floods,and landslides.The techniques developed by various forecasting centers to assist in predicting and communicating the impacts associated with these events are also presented in this report.展开更多
The December 2011 disaster in the Philippines which was induced by TS Washi was investigated. This disastrous event which claimed 1,268 human lives and Ph P1.455 Billion(US$63.26M) damages to infrastructure and agricu...The December 2011 disaster in the Philippines which was induced by TS Washi was investigated. This disastrous event which claimed 1,268 human lives and Ph P1.455 Billion(US$63.26M) damages to infrastructure and agriculture was analyzed in terms of meteorological, hydrological, environmental and social aspects. Government’s response to the disaster was also included. Meteorological analysis was carried out using surface observations, satellite data and simulation of numerical weather prediction model. Intense short duration rainfall upstream the river basin and the damming effect along the river triggered the flashfloods downstream in Cagayan de Oro and Iligan Cities. The strong storm winds coupled with orographic lifting enhanced the rainfall activity over the mountain. The encroachment in the sandbars and the river banks due to urbanization and unabated development impeded the flow of water resulting to greater damage. In addition, the timing of the high tide constrained the flow of the flood waters that resulted to widespread flooding in the downstream areas. This flood event on 16 December 2011 reached a maximum height of 7 meters and the extent of inundation covered about 7 to 10 meters high from the river banks in Cagayan de Oro City.The conclusion was that the disaster was the result of the interplay of climatic, environmental and social factors. As a result of the flood disaster and based on the findings of the different agencies, the Philippine government came up with various recommendations which include regulation of the development in the floodplain areas, hazard mapping and installation of early warning system.展开更多
This article describes recent advances in the capability of new satellite sensors for observing Tropical Cyclones(TC)fine structure,wind field,and temporal evolution.The article is based on a World Meteorological Orga...This article describes recent advances in the capability of new satellite sensors for observing Tropical Cyclones(TC)fine structure,wind field,and temporal evolution.The article is based on a World Meteorological Organization(WMO)report prepared for the 10th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC),held in Bali in December 2022,and its objective is to present updates in TC research and operation every four years.Here we focus on updates regarding the most recent space-based TC observations,and we cover new methodologies and techniques using polar orbiting sensors,such as C-band synthetic aperture radars(SARs),L-band and combined C/X-band radiometers,scatterometers,and microwave imagers/sounders.We additionally address progress made with the new generation of geostationary and small satellites,and discuss future sensors planned to be launched in the next years.We then briefly describe some examples on how the newest sensors are used in operations and data assimilation for TC forecasting and research,and conclude the article with a discussion on the remaining challenges of TC space-based observations and possible ways to address them in the near future.展开更多
文摘This review summarizes the rapporteur report on advances in monitoring and forecasting of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones(TCs)and its impact during 2014–18,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia during 5th–9th December 2022.Major physical processes that can modulate TC rainfall distribution,including topography,storm motion,vertical wind shear,and intensity,along with the fundamental physics of rain bands and clouds as simulated by numerical models,diurnal variation of rainfall,and various synoptic and mesoscale features controlling the rainfall distribution are briefly discussed.Improvements to the dynamic core and physical processes in global models are providing useable forecasts nearly up to 7 days.This report also summarizes,some tools that have been developed to predict TC rainfall.Lately there is a tendency for operational forecasting centers to utilize multi-model ensemble systems for rainfall forecasting that demonstrate superior performance than individual models,ensemble members,or even single model ensembles.Major impacts include pluvial and fluvial floods,and landslides.The techniques developed by various forecasting centers to assist in predicting and communicating the impacts associated with these events are also presented in this report.
文摘The December 2011 disaster in the Philippines which was induced by TS Washi was investigated. This disastrous event which claimed 1,268 human lives and Ph P1.455 Billion(US$63.26M) damages to infrastructure and agriculture was analyzed in terms of meteorological, hydrological, environmental and social aspects. Government’s response to the disaster was also included. Meteorological analysis was carried out using surface observations, satellite data and simulation of numerical weather prediction model. Intense short duration rainfall upstream the river basin and the damming effect along the river triggered the flashfloods downstream in Cagayan de Oro and Iligan Cities. The strong storm winds coupled with orographic lifting enhanced the rainfall activity over the mountain. The encroachment in the sandbars and the river banks due to urbanization and unabated development impeded the flow of water resulting to greater damage. In addition, the timing of the high tide constrained the flow of the flood waters that resulted to widespread flooding in the downstream areas. This flood event on 16 December 2011 reached a maximum height of 7 meters and the extent of inundation covered about 7 to 10 meters high from the river banks in Cagayan de Oro City.The conclusion was that the disaster was the result of the interplay of climatic, environmental and social factors. As a result of the flood disaster and based on the findings of the different agencies, the Philippine government came up with various recommendations which include regulation of the development in the floodplain areas, hazard mapping and installation of early warning system.
基金support of NASA Ocean Vector Wind Science Team contract 80HQTR19C0003.
文摘This article describes recent advances in the capability of new satellite sensors for observing Tropical Cyclones(TC)fine structure,wind field,and temporal evolution.The article is based on a World Meteorological Organization(WMO)report prepared for the 10th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC),held in Bali in December 2022,and its objective is to present updates in TC research and operation every four years.Here we focus on updates regarding the most recent space-based TC observations,and we cover new methodologies and techniques using polar orbiting sensors,such as C-band synthetic aperture radars(SARs),L-band and combined C/X-band radiometers,scatterometers,and microwave imagers/sounders.We additionally address progress made with the new generation of geostationary and small satellites,and discuss future sensors planned to be launched in the next years.We then briefly describe some examples on how the newest sensors are used in operations and data assimilation for TC forecasting and research,and conclude the article with a discussion on the remaining challenges of TC space-based observations and possible ways to address them in the near future.
